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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (7551)	6/4/2004 8:33:47 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 116555

I'm still thinking about your post on the 70's -- I think the perma-bulls would say no to Oil and Interest Rates 1) Oil still dirt cheap in real terms <g> 2) Interest rates are still single digits -- what're ya whinin about <g> Inflation -- what's that -- used to be a cosmological theory, but fallen into disfavor among the forward thinking scientists these days <g> Structure of national and world economies very different -- Even the fundamentals underlying the things you mentioned are quite different. Oil -- well we import a lot more percentage-wise -- nobody has embargoed us, yet -- so on Oil -- we have a cyclical vs secular kinda thing going on. Inflation -- I believe there was actually a wage-price spiral in the 70's -- here we have a bit of a blow-up in commodities due to real supply issues -- wages are pretty much stagnant now -- I'm not just speaking from personal experience here Interest rates -- yeah they've started rising -- but from the depths -- and some could still argue that we have real negative rates, especially at the short end -- yet real economic activity is not expanding. I don't think this is much like the 70's at all -- either on the macro-economic front -- or the "psycho-social" front either. When thinking about the move in gold in the 70's -- did this happen after interest rates and the wage-price spiral were already well underway -- or some years before??