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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10145)	6/5/2004 1:46:13 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

RtS, I agree with you, as I have for many months, about the institutional investors not buying the semi-equips since January, and in AMAT's case, since early November 03. Until they step back into the buying mode, the semi-equips are not going anywhere. There are several brokerages, mutual funds, etc, who were convinced they should sell this "cycle" beginning at the end of 2003 or early January 2004. Since then we have been in a decline, and for the semi-equips to the "tune" of about 30 some percent. A lot has been posted about this outlook on this board as well as several others. Even though the "averages" by all the investment houses show rising EPS for 2005, many individual investment houses, CSFB being one of them, have the semi-equips with 2005 EPS numbers about 20 percent lower than 2004 numbers. Smith Barney came out this week and said we are more than likely at the "peak" of the cycle. I want to know - at the peak of what cycle? I just read the SIA(WSTS) Message 20188198 report this week that said 2004 was going to have great gains, 2005 was going to be an up year, 2006 was going to be a "flat" year and 2007 was going to be an up year. Where is the down cycle? Lets look at Gottfried's chart, home.comcast.net which shows SIA chip sales ve SEMI Bookings. If we believe the chip sales forecast, the chip sale line in the chart will be going upward for the next 3+ years. Now look at the Bookings bars - are these going to retreat if the chip sales continue upward for the next 3+ years? They never have before - when chip sales are going up, the Bookings bars have gone up since the chart began in the beginning of 1995. CSFB, SB, and others are trying to say the cycle is over - I say it is just getting started!:) Don