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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (7561)	6/5/2004 10:47:57 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

>>While this does attempt to show more realism in the actual final number, it also throws some subjectivity into the numbers<< nuts to that -- it is all wishful thinking, IMO. They may very well be able to give good estimates as to how fast business are being born versus businesses going kaput -- what the statistics can't capture is the nature of those businesses being added. I bet all of us can name at least 3 or 4 folks we know that had jobs in technical or mfring areas that are now "business owners" -- how many of these businesses do you expect will survive the next few years. I know one fellow that started a handyman service -- one fellow that started an information service -- I think the employment numbers are worthless and even the Fed knows this -- unless they see major corporations hiring they are going to discount this stuff -- they may raise once for appearances sake -- but that will be the reason -- not to cool an "overheating" economy -- regardless of higher commodity prices. The other thing here is: yeah, maybe the carry trade is getting some adjustment, but it is hardly being unwound in total -- the economy can't thrive if that happens -- if it happens, that's the end -- and the carry trade is not the ONLY reason that commodity prices have risen in the first place. The carry trade -- if it takes in all of the borrow short / lend long parts of the economy -- is huge. A real unwind means instant deep, deep depression. Contrary Investor worth a read from Thursday -- talks a lot about divergence of oil stocks from oil -- whether or not this is going be confirmed by oil dropping out of bed. He also mentions the transports -- which have completely shrugged off recent spike in oil. The burning question is: Do the financial markets have it right?? If they don't we'll have a new more general definition for max pain. If the transports are right and the OSX not confirming oil -- well then we go back to the working definition of max pain -- bears get it heaped on -- esp tech bears. <VBG>