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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (135764)	6/6/2004 11:49:41 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Bilow, the world will not let Saudi oil exports fail without a response. You cannot have 10% of the worlds present production and a country with the largest oil reserves fall into chaos or into the wrong hands. We went to war when Saddam tried to get his hands on more oil in Kuwait. Because there is no draft now does not mean there wont be a draft after the Saudi regime collapses. Oil prices are changing not only because of terror but because oil demand is zooming and oil excess supply has been mostly eliminated. Less Iraqi oil supply has not made a significant oil price impact, the fact that OPEC misread the booming Asian demand and did not provide their remaining production has more than offset any reduced Iraqi oil supply. OPEC HAD excess supply to offset lost Iraqi production. The world has changed over the last year as Asia and the USA have dramatically increased their energy needs and TODAY we cannot lose Iraqi production without a severe price spike. Unless terror knocks down demand long and hard, the lack of oil supply against new demand will be something you will appreciate more as time passes by.