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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (50745)	6/6/2004 5:26:48 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Additions to my previous post: The cheapening of computer hardware and the advances of speed have been continuous throughout the last several years. Many computer systems which once were only practical in principle, now are installed and working well. This creates a general saving of costs across the whole economy. Furthermore, many companies found out that they don't know how to run complex computer installations, or they don't know that they have to pay more than they do to get the real experts to work at their companies. So we see important huge scale outsourcing to companies like IBM or HP.

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (50745)	6/6/2004 6:50:31 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

re unwinding and technology - the "unwinding" indicates the shape of the scene, the landscape and the gradients involved. The technology helps the move towards the equilibrium, it does not change the landscape (except if we ourselves - and the landscape around us - change on the way...). So, if at all, technology would ease/speed up change. Or (on the second thought) pile it even higher (thinking of Nobel prizes for Black & Sholes...) Regards dj

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (50745)	6/6/2004 3:38:36 PM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 74559

Hi Malcolm - Would like disagree in degree with a few items in your list - 3) U.S. consumers have higher debt loads, but lower debt service (current payments) as a result of lower rates. So they are a good way from maxed out. Also, many consumers have used lower rates to accelerate paying off mortages. Asset side also looks better with rise of stock market, real estate prices (many own real estate other than 1 st home), commodity prices (farmers, miners, royalty owners) Many families have two incomes. Debt numbers also ignore 401(k)s and IRAs. Very reasonable to borrow money at low ratesthat is tax deductible, increase contributions to retirement account which are tax free.

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (50745)	6/6/2004 3:42:21 PM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 74559

Malcolm - 4) Government debt will becoming down as ecomony recovers - this is already happenig at the state level via spending restrictions. At the federal level, economic growth + inflation means higher tax revenue, lower unemployment spending. A modest reduction in the defense spending side, would make the defict much more manageble, and make it possible to grow out of the defict are in about 4-5 years.

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (50745)	6/6/2004 3:50:21 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Malcolm - 5) the US Balance of payments numbers are less real than the household survey employment numbers. What are being recorded as foreign sources of funds and exporters to the US have an extensive number of US controlled 'dummy' corps, hidden subsidiaries, tax dodges, etc. Rigged transfer pricing on sub assemblies, componeents, "special grades" of raw material, etc. allows piosting of profits in lower tax areas A lower USD will mean the US will to close to balanced trade (maybe 1-2% real defict ) in about another year, or less.