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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (10172)	6/6/2004 10:31:05 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Brian and Cary, there is a direct correlation to the value of a stock based upon several factors including earnings, margins and growth prospects, market dominance, product sales volumes, etc.....when comparing these attributes directly against shares outstanding the valuation is determined by the market. If AMAT still had 800M shares outstanding the stock price would be $40+ right now based on PE, PS, growth, margins etc..... there would be a premium value assigned which is currently missing. Once a stock and an industry becomes mature it's growth prospects diminish as does it's premium value. IMO, outstanding stock value diminishes as share count increases and demand for the stock decreases. Demand is a premium valuation assignment to a stock..... An example, if there was excessive gold on the market and it was readily available it's value premium is lowered. Less gold available, the value becomes worth more if demand warrants it..... This applies to oil, diamonds, etc., why do you fail to see this with stocks outstanding? Ever hear of the concept of SUPPLY AND DEMAND? It is a simple correlation, don't overlook the association inferred.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (10172)	6/6/2004 11:34:21 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

Re: Have you looked at the timeframe you have chosen for your "correlation"? It is the worst in history for the sector. Be careful before looking for correlations in narrow windows of time. Try this time frame going back to 1990 which also includes far more of the best timeframe in history for AMAT: stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[d19900101,20041207][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G Brian, has it occurred to you that the period of time prior to the collapse of the Stock Market Bubble was the absolute best period of time for long term investors in semi equipment stocks? Unlike many blue chip stocks AMAT pays no dividend. Even a stock paying a dividend does not guarantee a return but it helps. The problem here is that unless institutional investors buy and hold AMAT there is no way small investors like us can hope to benefit from the trading of the stock by doing the same. There are no guaranteed returns in the stock market regardless of whether one follows fundamental valuations, technical analysis, or any other methodologies. The argument here is buy and hold vs shorter term trading. Which works best? Well that still depends on when an investors buys and sells. RtS