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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10179)	6/6/2004 12:30:38 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 25522

AMAT cost: 28.6% at $18.86; 54.3% at $17.41; and 17.1% at $3.66. My purchase model called for an average price of $15.85. I didn't achieve my model goal. The 17.1% is a remnant of the last cycle. I don't have a price target because I can't pass Divination 101. If the company performs as I expect (not close to 100% sure), institutional investors will help me (close to 100% sure). RE: "...it only matters when you buy and when you sell..." How does it help if I say it only matters "when you hold them and when you fold them"?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10179)	6/6/2004 12:38:47 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

<<Can you be absolutely 100% sure that institutional investors will help you by buying and holding this stock?>> I would argue that the answer to your question is yes - there is a 100 percent "surety" that institutional investors will be back into this stock. We just don't know when, and for how long, but they will be back. They always have been in the past and they will be in the future. The "run" from Oct 02 to Nov 03/Jan 04 was a fine example of institutional "buying and holding", and then they bailed. So far, they haven't seen fit to "start another cycle". We have a tentative low set in the SOX and SMH on 3 May. Since then the general trend has been up, but with no real conviction in buying by "institutions". The reluctance of the institutions to re-enter the market could change at any time, however. If the economy and chip sales continue to improve during the coming months, the CSFB's and the SB's of the investment world are going to be "run over". They have forecast a "flat" 2H04 and a down 2005. Let's regroup for a second and see what the CSFB's and SB's of the investment world have accomplished since the beginning of the year. By their net selling, they have driven down the price of the semi-equips and stocks in general by some large percentages. In 5 months, or so, the semi-equips are down over 30 percent. I think for the most part, the institutions did their job well, doing what they wanted to do, by driving down prices by over 30 percent while earnings estimates were up 200 percent. These "entities" have a lot of power in the market - they own about 80 percent of all stocks so the power is theirs to wield when they want to. At some point, the institutions will decide they want to start another "cycle". We may be at the beginning of that point now. I suggest we all try to discern just when the institutions decide to start accumulating shares again. That is the time for us poor individual investors to jump in on the long side and go along for the ride.:) Don