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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10220)	6/7/2004 10:03:47 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 25522

Re: "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" by Burton Malkiel Probably one of the only "must read" books on investing....that along with "The Intelligent Investor"

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10220)	6/7/2004 10:41:08 AM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 25522

A Random Walk Down Wall Street: Completely Revised and Updated Eighth Edition by Burton G. Malkiel, Burton Gordon Malkiel amazon.com The eternal truth of this updated investment classic, originally published in 1973, is simple: you can't beat the market. Well, technically, you can beat the market, but not profitably, because the transaction costs of your brilliant trading will eat up the extra returns. You can also beat the market by pure luck-but you can't deliberately beat the market, because you can't predict future stock prices. You can't predict them by divining Wall Street's crowd psychology; or by charting trends in stock prices; or by doing lots of research on companies' business prospects. You can't predict them from hemlines (though there's been "some evidence" for correlation between skirt length and market prices in the past, Malkiel poo-poos future possibilities) or Super Bowl winners (this, he says, makes "no sense"). In fact, according to the efficient market theory, which states that all knowable information about a stock's value is already reflected in its share price, you can't predict them at all. Malkiel, a Princeton economist and professional investor, backs it all up with statistics, charts and studies, and gives an entertaining review of the sorry history of market bubbles, panics and delusions of omniscience, from the Dutch tulip craze to the Beardstown Ladies. This edition looks at new wrinkles (it seems you can't beat the market by buying companies with ".com" in the name), and provides a lucid overview of novel investment vehicles. Standing by his notorious claim that "a blindfolded chimpanzee throwing darts" at the NYSE listings could pick stocks as well as the Wall Street pros, Malkiel advises investors to "buy and hold" a diversified portfolio heavy on index funds that passively mirror the market, which usually out-perform actively managed funds. His witty, acerbic style and persuasive arguments will delight readers but, alas, leave Wall Street unmoved. Copyright 2003 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition. Sounds like a fun book. I believe this is true for most people that they cannot beat the market. It has been in the past for me as well. Not for you Cary. I have ample evidence that due to well timed buying of your eight favorite stocks that you have beat the market handily so far. Cary, you are market timing your buys. I think you are timing your buys very well. I do believe that you held too long this cycle. This is lowering your overall profits. But at least you have profits! As for me I believe that because of the Internet, charting services and near real time data that the market is much easier to time than it was in 1973. By ruling out new techniques that could improve your trading you are reducing your chances to make the most money you possibly could each cycle. The technical and indicator analysis that I am looking at is already being used by institutional investors. Was this information available to the retail investor in 1973? Nope. RtS