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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (10222)	6/7/2004 10:42:29 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

OT: There's a Merrill Lynch report called Bio-Stats. If anyone has a copy they'd share with me, it can be emailed to stromberg@sympatico.ca Thanks, Ian

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (10222)	6/7/2004 10:43:01 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Here's where I think the "analysts" are missing the obvious. We have been reading about the "spectacular" year over year % improvements in bookings and billings. They are flaunting numbers like +30% and +40% yoy as being the reason why this cycle will end sooner then later. What this type of analysis is missing is the "fact" (my word) that last year at this time the actual investment in SCE was probably about 25% UNDER where it should have been! The industry is currently making up for their under investment in 2003. Because of these huge yoy numbers, the extrapolation by the industry analysts are expecting 2006 to be flat. I present to the thread the possibility that their view is faulty due to a failure to see the past in the proper perspective. The last time the industry had 30% or 40% yoy investment activity, it caused the worst downturn in the sector's history. Today, when an analyst sees a statistic like 40% yoy growth, they immediately equate this with excessive investment. But this is NOT excessive, it's only making up for the previous year's under investment. The institutions who rely on the analysts to guide their investment strategies, are currently following the advice of analysts who are using faulty reasoning. Eventually, they will see the error of their ways and return to this sector. Time to be patient, imo. Very soon, they will see the folly of their mistaken assumption: the assumption that when yoy investment activity in the SCE sector breaks the 30-40% level, we are seeing the top forming (and, therefore, it's time to get out of the sector). jmo mh