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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50802)	6/8/2004 12:33:16 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

One possible Abracadabra or a miriad of mini-Abracadabras. What if: Materials stay up. (India, China and the rest of Asia continue without a meltdown. Oil stay up. (Idem plus North Sea oil dried up, Saudi royals 80 years old. Still keeping it simple to the bare bones: Lets leave aside the obvious (shipping tonnage increase, mining, transport infrastructure improvement)? What happens when materials go up and stays up? Lets look to an extreme case: Germany that have had no colonies and was blocked during two World Wars. They develop synthetic materials. (IG Farben -which made the developments was split after the war and became Bayer, Hoechst and BASF). We can see that some biotech-gentech firms may do a IG Farben in the next 20 years as the developing countries suck in raw materials to fuel their economic growth. Abracadabra Number 01: Gentech-biotech. Synthetic materials What happens oil go up and stays up? Lets look to the extreme case of 1973 when we were led to believe that we've ran out of oil. Governments pushed conservation to the top of the agenda. Subsidizing home heating insulation. Industry made electric appliances more efficient. Eletronics progressing fast helped save energy with servo controls and mechanis for managing consumption... More efficient car engines. Ethanol field trials. Abracadabra Number 02: Eletricity efficiency. New fuels. Genetic engineered non-food crops for bio-derived fuels.