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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (14999)	6/7/2004 10:27:02 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Dr. Copper Spoke Up Today. Work continues down at the construction site, on the earnest rebuilding of the Weak Dollar/Reflation Trade. However, this time around I think its just a plain ole' Inflation Trade. Meanwhile, gold looks set to confound the technicians, and the fundies too (and especially those who are gold bullish, among these)--who thought the yellow metal would weaken again. Is gold finally ready to spek up too--to inflation? The USD looked finally looked like the Punk it really is, today. I wonder how the (new) Iraqi Dinar traders are doing? There was a good story on them in the WSJ about 6 weeks ago. Dollar bloc anyone? AUD-CAN-NZD? The Real Estate Bubble in OZ made the WSJ today. ANd that is a good thing.

To: russwinter who wrote (14999)	6/7/2004 10:50:42 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, what do you make of that consumer credit number? One thing I will say is that the bond market acted all day as if it knew spending would be down. Now is it really down or is this MOP? Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (14999)	6/8/2004 2:09:58 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

russwinter, seems totally logical to me. federalreserve.gov The last round of refi mania started in Dec 03, with most loans closed by Apr 04. We know that hot real estate markets such as most of California were appreciating at 20+% pace. To put that in perspective, the avg house now is about 9 times median household income. A 20% appreciation equates almost a tripling of household income. TRIPLING. A reasonable person has to conclude that at least some homeowners would take advantage of this gift and pay off some of their higher cost revolving debt with cheaper fix debt. Now that refi is over, evidenced by just about every source from MBAA to report from CFC today, what should we expect going forward? biz.yahoo.com If revolving debt starts going up, I would suggest that the train is closer to the wreck.