Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (50818)	6/8/2004 4:19:06 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Let's say that all goes as you estimate. Even in that case those sellers of 2010 oil at 29+ per barrel, right now, must be totally neglecting the tendency of governments to print themselves out of debt. Maybe they are thinking "Okay, I'll lose a bit but I get to use the money from selling the futures for the next 6.5 years so that will be worth more than the loss. Kind of paying interest only at the end, sort of thing. I find insanity of market participants useful to study.

To: energyplay who wrote (50818)	6/8/2004 4:19:57 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Eplay, there'll still be oil around when we do the switch. But that remaining oil will be very, very expensive! In my Abracadabra scenario, the end of oil near. This kicks in a plethora of technologies, which in its turn, that will fuel (pun intended) new industries -probably creating a bubble- and the switch from oil gets under way. 1973 first oil shock. First glimpse that the stuff was unexhaustible. 2004 cost of keeping the supply is very high. Next: how much oil indeed is out there? with transparent numbers. The first shoe to drop will be from the European Union: <While primary oil demand in European Union (EU) countries is projected to increase by 0.4% per year from now to 2030, North Sea output peaked in 1999 and has been on the decline ever since. The industry group the UK Offshore Operators Association (UKOOA) projected that North Sea output in 2004 would drop to 3.7 million barrels per day (mbd) from over four million last year. The British Daily Telegraph quoted UKOOA and the British Department of Trade and Industry warning that there was a "two to three year window of opportunity" to maximize the remaining reserves in the North Sea. This view is generally supported by the International Energy Outlook of the Energy Information Administration 2002 forecast. According to the report North Sea production is likely to peak in 2004 and then gradually decline with the maturing of some of its larger and older fields. Other studies show that the North Sea already peaked in 2000 at 6.4 mbd. At that point North Sea oil was 9% of global production and 22% of OPEC production. Some efforts are being made to arrest the decline. The development of small marginal fields and introduction of sophisticated exploration and drilling techniques continues. But these efforts can, at best, extend the life of region by few more years. According to the World Energy Outlook 2002 of the International Energy Agency, EU oil production, most of it from the North Sea, is projected to fall to 2.3 mbd in 2010 and 1.1 mbd in 2030, forcing the EU to increase its dependency on imported oil, primarily from the Persian Gulf. The swing from net exports to net imports is likely to harm those European economies producing oil and gas, particularly those of Britain, Norway and Denmark. It will generate a major additional annual burden on the balance of trade of Britain and Norway adding 65 to 85% to the level of these countries trade deficit. But even those European countries that do not produce oil are likely to suffer as a result of the decline. They will be forced to import more oil from remote areas incurring higher transport costs.>>