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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (16345)	6/8/2004 10:47:25 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 207052

mchjc, you can look for H&S tops, but remember my theory - H&S patterns break in the direction of the primary macro trend. If macro trend is up, as I believe it is, most H&S tops should fail, and inverse H&S patters, even imperfect ones, should rule. BTW, I'm a clown believer in COMP 2940 for the high for this current move. I believe we are in a pause just before a parabolic rise. The 1960 area should hold as a low for at least a year, IMO. This should all end in a drop similar in percentage (30%) to the drop in April-May 2000, but maybe take twice as much time to play out.

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (16345)	6/8/2004 11:58:09 AM
From: dvdw©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 207052

MC you said "they don't grow in rarified atmosphere. but only after an extended bear move...........and I don't think the action since January qualifies." Perhaps you dont own a basket of these stocks....if we are talking about RUT stocks; I own a bunch, and we have been in a severe correction since January with many sitting at their lows. So without commenting on the efficacy of your charts one way or another.....I suspect the rinse cycle in many of these issues has played out. Most have demonstrated positive guidance, and forward fundamentals look great...yet, here they are sitting on the lows....too me this is the churn...it has little or nothing to do with the stocks themselves.

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (16345)	6/8/2004 12:29:54 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 207052

mchjc: There are lot of patterns getting bastardized as of late with the addition of all the new market analysis prognosticators over the last few years as well as a lot of folks working at using multiple time frame analysis. I began using price/volume pattern analysis back in 1986 and developed my use of multiple time frame analysis prior to the 87 correction. I began to share publicly my work using both in late 1998 on SI. IMO, Head & Shoulder patterns standard or inverse are trend reversal patterns that fail more often than they succeed. Most often when I see folks trying to use them as a continuation mechanism, they have misread the in play controlling pattern. Objects in motion tend to stay in motion, as do trends. That is why timing medium to longer-term reversals in market direction is rarely an easy task. However, for those that work at becoming fairly proficient at it, the rewards can be well worth the effort. Regards, LG