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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (7644)	6/8/2004 12:55:55 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

U.S. can handle 'modest' hike, White House says Tuesday, June 8, 2004 4:50:19 PM SAVANNAH, Ga. (AFX) -- President Bush will assure the Group of Eight leadership that the U.S. economy is "in a position to handle a modest rise in interest rates," an administration official said at the group's summit here The official said U.S. growth is expected to slow to a 3.5 percent clip next year from the 4.6 percent rate expected in 2004 as the economy's excess capacity is absorbed. The official briefed reporters on background, meaning his or her name could not be published The official said that the risks of rising global interest rates and higher energy costs in potentially slowing global growth will be discussed as the heads of the eight industrial powers meet over coming days. Asked if officials might think of ways to cool demand for oil in addition to promoting production hikes, the official stressed that the discussions are not scripted and several ideas may be entertained The official said Bush is expected to use the scope of expanding global growth to push Europe to take structural steps that could boost the region's contribution to global growth. European growth is expected to be under 2 percent this year, compared to 4.6 percent in the United States and 3.1 percent in Japan fxstreet.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (7644)	6/8/2004 2:29:58 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Carry Trade KT are they unwinding this carry trade straight into stock indicies? M

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (7644)	6/8/2004 4:57:51 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I regard an Islamic nuculaer war as written in stone they will get it from the new Pakistani Islamic Republic project funded by Saudi Arabia since mid-1990's our current relationship with Saudi is like a man having a pet scorpion he feeds it on his hand eventually it will bite him the Saudi situation is becoming hopeless and tragic their middle class is vanishing it has morphed into a reverse marxist state 20 thousand Saudi royal family rich brats never worked a day in their lives, feeling entitled to wealth per capita income has gone from $28.6k/yr to $7k/yr since 1981 that is a 75% decline while the number of rich brat dirtbags has tripled they must support their lifestyles and yachts these are our partners these are our assassins for an eye opener, read ex-CIA Baer's account foi.missouri.edu / jim

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (7644)	6/8/2004 8:54:01 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Trichet says ECB vigilant on oil, but sees 2005 inflation below 2 pct UPDATE Tuesday, June 8, 2004 4:56:14 PM (Updating to add comments on recent data, structural reforms) LONDON (AFX) - European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB has to be vigilant over the recent rise in oil prices, but it is nevertheless confident that inflation in the euro zone will be below 2 pct in 2005 This outlook for 2005 inflation is the reason why the ECB left its interest rates unchanged at last week's governing council meeting, he said at the International Monetary Conference "We are confident that we will deliver inflation below 2 pct, in line with our definition of price stability, in 2005. That was the reason why we didn't move rates last Thursday," he said The ECB currently sees risks to price stability as balanced, he said. But the central bank is keeping all its options open and has no bias in its monetary policy stance, he said In particular, the central bank has to ensure that the rise in oil prices does not translate into "second round" inflation effects, he said Trichet reiterated that the immediate boost to inflation from the oil price rise and its dampening effect on growth are both highly unwelcome. But he said it is too early to assess whether the oil price rise represents a transitory episode or a more persistent phenomenon He said the high level of oil prices represents one of the key downside risks to the economic growth outlook, and consumer confidence levels are also a concern. But there are also upside risks and other recent data have been more positive and confirm the ECB's assumption that the euro zone is experiencing a gradual economic recovery, he said Euro zone first quarter growth of 0.6 pct, equivalent to an annualised rate of 2.4 pct, was much stronger than expected, but market psychology towards the euro zone is such that the news did not produce a significant positive reaction, he said And while euro zone macroeconomic figures in general are not very flattering compared with the US, corporate profits are constantly increasing, pointing to a more favourable picture at the microeconomic level, he said So there are good reasons to invest in Europe, but it still has to deliver more structural reform, he said An important first step would be to reduce public spending as a percentage of GDP in some countries, he said Trichet said politicians are committed to structural reforms but it is not always easy to convince public opinion of the need for tough measures "It is easy to produce a diagnosis, easy to produce an agenda. It's more complicated to deliver," he said fxstreet.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (7644)	6/8/2004 9:33:53 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

CPI dailyreckoning.com One reason that the CPI does not accurately reflect price trends on Main Street is that the fixed market basket is recalculated only once every decade. That means that new items, things like Palm Pilots and MP3 players, don't get added to the mix. Neither do college tuition costs. Food and housing account for 58% of the total CPI calculation, yet taxes are not included. Certainly most of us pay more in taxes than we do for food and housing. At best, the CPI calculation is bad methodology. At its worst, it is downright deception. At a Senate hearing, Democratic Sen. Bob Graham of Florida said that using the CPI to determine inflation was like "using a thermometer to measure distance." The fact is that the true rate of inflation is much higher than the low CPI number, probably around 6% in our opinion. That means that 10-year Treasury holders who bought in when the yield was 4% are actually making minus 2% on their money. That might not be such a big deal if it were not for the size of the Treasury bond market. Treasury debt totals $3.5 trillion, making it the federal government's most important borrowing pool - a pool that cannot be tampered with, even while President Bush insists on keeping tax cuts as the costs of waging war are soaring.