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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (49429)	6/8/2004 6:14:35 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793637

Democrats on the Road in Effort to Take Back House. RothenbergPoliticalReport.com This is an Email I get. As President George W. Bush's approval ratings fall below the 50% mark, Democrats have increased talk about taking back the House for the first time in a decade. But a closer look at the seats in play reveals that Democrats are essentially playing a "road game" in historically unfavorable electoral territory, the South, rather than a "home game" in Democratic-leaning regions of the country. With Stephanie Herseth's (D) victory last week in South Dakota, Democrats still need to net eleven seats in November to make Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) the first female Speaker of the House. In fact, the party needs to pick up at least fourteen seats, because redistricting in Texas has guaranteed at least a three seat GOP pick-up there. This year, eighteen of the most competitive seats in the country are in the South. That's over double any other region and about half of all the competitive seats in the House this cycle. For Democrats, the chance to take back the House will be won or lost in the South. In recent elections, the region has not been particularly friendly territory to the Democrats. In 2000, Bush carried all eleven Southern states. Two years later, Democratic Govs. Bob Seigelman (AL), Jim Hodges (SC), and Roy Barnes (GA) were all defeated in their reelection bids, as was U.S. Sen. Max Cleland (D) of Georgia. Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (MS) lost reelection last November. Democrats were able to knock off Sen. Tim Hutchinson (AR) in 2002 and take the governor's office in Louisiana in 2003, but the overall outlook in the South has not been favorable for the Democrats. Overall, Republicans currently hold a 77-53 edge in congressional seats in the South. Another hurdle, along with the territory, is that Democrats are defending more seats (9) in the South as they are targeting (7). Two more districts (in Texas) include incumbents of both parties. Democrats have to knock off freshman incumbents Max Burns (GA 12), Mike Rogers (AL 3), and Phil Gingrey (GA 11), as well as veterans Anne Northup (KY 3), Robin Hayes (NC 8), Clay Shaw (FL 22), and Charles Taylor (NC 11). They also hope to pick up the only Republican open-seat of the bunch, Billy Tauzin's 3rd District in Louisiana. But in order to net seats, Democrats will have to defend three very vulnerable incumbents in Texas, including Max Sandlin (TX 1), Nick Lampson (TX 2), and Chet Edwards (TX 17). Other less vulnerable Democratic members in the region include Rodney Alexander (LA 5), Allen Boyd (FL 2), Jim Marshall (GA 3), Rick Boucher (VA 9), and Lincoln Davis (TN 4). Democrats must also hang onto Louisiana 7, currently held by Chris John (D), who is running for Senate. Democratic Congs. Charlie Stenholm and Martin Frost are also in the fight of their lives against fellow incumbents Randy Neugebauer (R) and Pete Sessions (R) in the newly configured 11th and 32nd Districts, each drawn to favor the GOP candidate. A third challenge for Democrats in the South is the presidential candidacy of John Kerry. It could be difficult for Democratic challengers to capitalize on any potential Kerry coattails this fall because they will have to maintain a safe distance from the senator because of his stances on social issues like abortion and gay marriage. It also means Congressional candidates will have to raise much of their own money because Kerry will not be able to fly in for fundraisers, and his campaign will be focused on battleground states elsewhere. There is some good news for Democrats. The region with the next largest collection of competitive seats is the Mid-Atlantic, with eight. Democrats are looking to sweep away open seats like New York 27, New York 29, and Pennsylvania 15 and defeat GOP Congs. Jim Gerlach and Mike Ferguson. They must also reelect freshman Cong. Tim Bishop (NY 1) and veteran Tim Holden (PA 17), as well as hold on to Joe Hoeffel's vacant Pennsylvania 13 seat. In general, if Democrats simply maintain the status quo in the South (which is still difficult because of Texas), they would have to win almost two-thirds of the remaining competitive seats across the country. That's a hefty percentage considering it means knocking off incumbents in the Midwest and the Plains states, which are typically not much better than the South in Democratic performance at the federal level. An unpopular president is a welcome change to the challenge House Democrats faced in 2002. But this year, the Battle for the House will be fought away from the Democratic nest. By Nathan L. Gonzales

To: LindyBill who wrote (49429)	6/8/2004 7:47:16 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793637

So your "above the law" is quite a stretch. I suggest you take a look at the full article, Bill. I posted it yesterday. I'm not arguing Bush is about to declare a coup. What I am arguing is that it's very important that the concept of the president above the law was included in the final draft because the writers of the memo would only do so if they thought it would find a receptive audience. The second ominous thing is that, apparently, and hopefully we will hear more, no one objected. At least no one is coming forward now to say there is a record of objections. A record that says something like, we, in the Justice Department, in the White House, in the Pentagon, whatever, know this is unconstitutional and said so at the time.