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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50840)	6/8/2004 9:48:52 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Dollar rallies as Greenspan warns on inflation By Steve Johnson in London Published: June 8 2004 11:44 \| Last Updated: June 8 2004 17:38 The US dollar rallied from recent lows on Tuesday as Alan Greenspan raised the prospect of mounting inflation in the US. The Federal Reserve chairman said the spectre of deflation had passed and a “significant” degree of pricing power returned, while the rise in energy prices is “worrisome”. Although the usually non-committal Mr Greenspan littered his speech with a forest of caveats, some took this to mean the US may see more than the four rate rises the market had been expecting this year. Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York, argued that the Federal Open Market Committee was likely to hike rates by 25 basis points at every meeting “for the foreseeable future”. The dollar’s slide since mid-May has been fuelled by a belief that monetary tightening had been fully priced in. With the futures market now eyeing up an additional rate rise in 2004 after Greenspan’s speech, the greenback rallied anew, firming 0.3 per cent against the euro to $1.2272 and 0.3 per cent versus sterling to $1.8356. However most thought the rally would remain limited, with Michael Metcalfe at State Street Bank arguing that because the speculative community was neutral dollars, rather than short, buying would be modest. The Swiss franc was also in demand, rising 0.4 per cent to a 12-month high of SFr1.5174 versus the euro, helped by an options barrier being breached, and firming 0.3 per cent to SFr2.2692 against sterling. The Swissie was aided by talk that a report circulated by an influential Washington consultancy suggested that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may not be far from raising rates. The currency has also been helped by a rise in three-month Swiss rates in recent days, attributed to the actions of the SNB. “The SNB appears to have been covertly tightening policy,” said Aziz McMahon at ABN Amro. Mr Metcalfe added that institutions have been buying the Swissie as a hedge against the dangers of rising global inflation, with Switzerland’s impressive track record on limiting inflation giving it the “hardest” currency in the long run. The Czech koruna and Polish zloty both held on to the bulk of gains made in US trading on Monday, with the koruna within a whisker of a 12-month high against the euro at Kcs31.295 and the zloty just off a seven-month high at 4.6048 zlotys. Paul Mackel, currency strategist at ABN Amro, attributed the moves to a decision by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to list futures contracts in the two eastern European currencies, as well as the Hungarian forint, from July 11. “With these currencies being listed on the CME, this may help put these currencies even more on the radar screen for US investors not only as a diversification strategy but also from system players adding these currencies to their models,” said Mr Mackel.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50840)	6/8/2004 10:02:43 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Jay, Every day brings optimistic things if we can see the code behind the matrix of the daily babble. So I am optimistic also, for some years ago, gold well under 300 hundred was a bargain and I was fortunate to have acquired at the time. Now today, as an optimistic example, we are told simultaneously by various babbles that oil could go to 100 dollars a barrel while others proclaim 20 dollars a barrel is around the corner. So I am optimistic today except for one thing. I cannot figure out, if oil goes down a few dollars more, where the heck I am going to put the tanker truck. It just will not look right in my homes rural setting and my (few) neighbors will think I've taken up long haul trucking for a living. ggg Roebear