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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (48659)	6/9/2004 3:12:45 PM
From: Skywatcher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Blair faces poll losses Wed 9 June, 2004 15:05 By Madeline Chambers LONDON (Reuters) - Tony Blair is braced for heavy losses in Thursday's local and European polls but U.N agreement on Iraq offers the prime minister some hope that fierce opposition to his most unpopular policy may start to wane. Votes for local councils, European parliament and the London mayor mark the biggest electoral test for Blair before a general election expected next year. A poor result caused by backlash over the Iraq war could rekindle talk of a leadership change. Opinion polls show many disillusioned voters will abandon the two main parties, Blair's Labour and the opposition Conservatives, and turn to smaller parties, including the eurosceptic UK Independence Party and the Greens. The government hopes the U.N. Security Council's unanimous endorsement on Tuesday of the handover of sovereignty to an Iraqi interim government will herald a more positive attitude towards its policy on Iraq, an issue that has dogged Blair. "I do believe that over the months ahead, if this pathway in the Security Council resolution is followed through, there will be an increasing re-emergence of support for the position which the government has taken," Foreign Minister Jack Straw said. But with violence in Iraq unlikely to ebb in the short term and Blair's personal trust ratings still languishing, few experts think the resolution will affect Thursday's votes. "There's no doubt that in the long term Blair should benefit, although it's difficult to gauge the short-term effect," said Tony Travers of the London School of Economics. He argued the main threat to Blair comes from members of his own party fearing for their seats next year. "If it looks like Labour is facing an electoral meltdown, it could re-provoke questions about Blair's leadership," he said. LONDON SHOCK? Once the party's main electoral asset, the prime minister has been noticeably absent from campaign literature in these elections and a new poll in the Evening Standard showed Labour may get a shock in London. The poll showed the Conservative candidate for London mayor is almost level with Ken Livingstone, a maverick socialist readmitted to the Labour Party after winning as an independent last time and until now the hot favourite. "If Ken Livingstone lost it would be totemic, it would be because of his new link to Blair," said Travers. Labour will seek to blame a bad result on "mid-term blues", an affliction common to most post-war governments. Voters tend to use these elections to kick the incumbent government and the results often have little bearing on general elections. Blair may also gain some comfort from the performance of the Conservatives, set to lose most to the UK Independence Party which advocates withdrawal from the European Union. Until the last few weeks, the Conservatives had looked reinvigorated under their new leader Michael Howard, but they have failed to make a significant breakthrough. A poll in Tuesday's Times put Conservative support in the European vote at just 24 percent and showed the two main parties securing only half the total votes while the Independence Party could win 13 percent. "This is really striking... There is no precedent in British politics, not just in modern British politics, in all British politics," said pollster Peter Kellner.