Bill, you are going to hate me for this one, unless you've already posted it. It's the LATimes most recent poll, out tonight. Ron Brownstein does the honors. Looking like a landslide.
THE TIMES POLL
Kerry Has Solid Lead Among Voters Nationwide
By Ronald Brownstein
Times Staff Writer
5:22 PM PDT, June 9, 2004
latimes.com
WASHINGTON - Widespread unease over the country's direction and doubts about President Bush's policies on Iraq and the economy helped propel Sen. John F. Kerry to a solid lead among voters nationwide, according to a new Times Poll.
Yet in a measure of the race's tenuous balance, Times' polling in three of the most fiercely contested states found that Bush has a clear advantage over Kerry in Missouri and runs even with the presumed Democratic rival in Ohio and Wisconsin.
The surveys suggest that attitudes may be coalescing for a contest that pivots on the classic electoral question at times of discontent: Will voters see more risk in stability or change?
More than one-third of those polled in the nationwide poll said they don't know enough about Kerry to decide whether he would be a better president than Bush. And when asked which candidate was more likely to flip-flop on issues, almost twice as many named Kerry than Bush.
Yet Kerry led Bush by 51% to 44% nationally in a two-way match up, and by 48% to 42% in a three-way race, with independent Ralph Nader drawing 4%.
Lifting Kerry is a powerful tailwind of dissatisfaction with the nation's course and Bush's answers for challenges at home and abroad. Nearly three-fifths believe the nation is on the wrong track, the highest level a Times poll has recorded during Bush's presidency.
A striking 56% said America "needs to move in a new direction" because Bush's policies have not improved the country. Just 39% say America is better off because of his agenda.
Majorities disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy and Iraq, despite recent encouraging news on both fronts.
Such dissatisfaction is moving voters such as Joseph Rechtin, a retired postal worker in Cincinnati, toward Kerry, even though the Massachusetts senator has not yet made a very sharp impression on him.
"I haven't seen that much that [Kerry] can provide us real leadership," said Rechtin. "But it's more than three years now and we don't seem to be going anywhere at all, and this involvement in Iraq is taking us down the wrong path, so I definitely feel we need a leadership change."
The surveys showed that Bush still enjoys significant political strengths, including virtually undivided support from his base and continued admiration for his handling of the struggle against terrorism. Nationally, his general approval rating is just above 50% - the mark that has divided the winners from the losers in recent presidential elections featuring an incumbent.
His assets are enough for Bush to maintain a double-digit advantage in Missouri with Nader in the mix, and to remain essentially even with Kerry in Ohio and Wisconsin, even though majorities in each state say the country should change direction. "Bush is a very strong person and that's what we need for a president," said Harley Wilber, a machine operator in Milwaukee and a Vietnam veteran. "If we had Kerry in there, [he] would be kind of wishy-washy."
The Times Poll, supervised by director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,230 registered voters in the national sample, as well as 566 registered voters in Missouri, 722 in Ohio, and 694 in Wisconsin from Saturday through Tuesday. The margin of sampling error for the national sample is plus or minus three percentage points; for the state polling it is plus or minus four percentage points.
The view of Bush as a strong leader is a powerful motivator for his supporters: Among the voters who express a favorable opinion of him, as many cite strong leadership as any other factor in explaining their opinion.
Michelle Mann, a stay-at-home mother in Oklahoma City, said she sees Bush as a "a resolute man, and he is doing what he firmly believes is the right thing to do" without worrying about political consequences or reactions from other nations.
She added: "As long as it is best for the American people, he is willing to go the distance."
Yet the national poll found that Kerry has erased Bush's earlier advantage on leadership skills, blunting one of the core arguments for the president's reelection.
Asked which candidate "will be a strong leader for the country," voters divided exactly in half, with 44% choosing each; in a Times' poll in March, Bush held a nine percentage point lead on that question.
Also, while Bush narrowly led in March when voters were asked which candidate "has the honesty and integrity to serve as president," the two now are essentially tied, with Bush attracting 41% and Kerry 40%.
On other personal attributes, the poll indicates that Americans are developing clear distinctions about the two candidates' strengths and weaknesses.
By 50% to 31%, those polled said Bush would be best at "keeping the country safe from terrorism." By 45% to 36%, Bush was picked over Kerry when voters were asked which man "shares my moral values." Perhaps most troubling for the Democrat, nearly half said Kerry "flip flops on the issues," while just a quarter applied that description to Bush.
But for Bush, the flip side of the flip-flop charge is a deepening perception that he is too rigid: by a resounding 58% to 16%, poll respondents said the phrase "too ideological and stubborn" applied more to Bush than to Kerry.
Bill Baggett, a retired accountant in Commerce Township, Mich., said he prefers Kerry's willingness to change his mind over what he sees as Bush's intransigence. Kerry's flexibility, Baggett said, "to me is a sign of intelligence."
Voters also preferred Kerry by about 10 percentage points when asked which man had better ideas for improving the economy and a better chance of building "respect for the United States around the world."
Kerry has established these advantages even while voters are just filling in their portrait of him. More than one-third of them - and nearly half of independents - said they do not know enough about Kerry "to decide whether he would be a better president" than Bush. Just 53% said they know a great deal or even a fair amount about Kerry's domestic policies; only 42% feel that way about his foreign policies. Yet Kerry has planted some flags with the public. He has been criticized by some Republicans and veterans over his activities during the Vietnam era, when he enlisted in the Navy but protested the war after his return from combat. But nearly three-fifths of those surveyed agreed that "in his combat missions in Vietnam, John Kerry demonstrated qualities America needs in a president." And just one-third said that in his protests against the war, "Kerry demonstrated a judgment and belief that is inappropriate in a president."
Those answers may help explain Kerry's strong showing on what is likely to be a critical test in the election: 59% said they were very or somewhat confident he would be a good commander-in-chief, just 38% expressed doubts.
One of Bush's best assets remains the belief that he has been a strong commander-in-chief on one front: 54% approve of his performance in the war on terror.
But on the economy, 54% of voters disapprove of his performance, while 43% approve. That's virtually unchanged from March, despite several months of strong job growth.
Eventually, that growth may boost Bush. But for now, 52% of voters said they believed Bush's economic policies had hurt the economy, while just 22% said his actions had improved it.
On Iraq, 44% approve of his performance, while 55% disapprove. That's down sharply from March, when a slight majority backed him on this issue. . The new poll also found only 35% believe Bush has "offered a clear plan" to achieve success in Iraq, while 44% said he has not.
Bush scores better on his overall approval rating, partly because of his continuing strength on the terrorism issue and partly because of his virtually unanimous support from Republicans and independents who consider themselves conservative. In the new poll, 51% approved of his performance while 47% disapproved, down only slightly since March.
Over the past 50 years, presidents who have won another term have generally enjoyed approval ratings around 55% or more by this point in the election year, while those who lost had fallen below 50%. So Bush finds himself on the cusp.
Bush also is bolstered by solid leads among culturally conservative groups that have favored Republicans over the past generation: married couples, rural voters, those who attend church services regularly (especially whites) and gun-owners.
But Kerry has unified Democrats, muted the traditional GOP advantage among men and opened a narrow edge among suburbanites.
Kerry also performs well among many groups that his party's nominees have traditionally relied upon: women, singles, those who attend religious services rarely or never, and lower-income families.In a three-way race, Nader has little effect on these dynamics.
For now, with Kerry still an opaque figure for many, Bush looms as the clear fulcrum of this race. More than 80% who approve of the president's performance said they will vote for him; more than 90% who disapprove said they will pull the lever for change. |
