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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (10356)	6/11/2004 2:10:50 PM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 25522

Tim-"If your right I guess the stock should underperform the market but if it does underperform how do we know why it underperformed?" Ah, the quintessential question, "which came first the chicken or the egg?" IMO, the stock has been underperforming for several months now relative to the sales, earnings, margins and management projections when compared to other industry up cycles. We won't see the report on how many shares funds/institutions are continuing to hold, or are buying, relative to the previous report for a while yet.... It is obvious that demand for the stock has decreased since Jan which is refected in the price decline from the 52 week high. The question is, will funds/institutions decide to continue to hold large numbers of potentially declining assets if the semi market has peaked and which reported analysis says appears to be headed for a general sales growth decline over the next year or so? If we see large percentage share sales by the institutions, then I will believe my premise is the correct one. Of course AMAT, with lots of cash might decide to increase its' buy back of low cost shares and reduce the amount in the float, which IMO would be good for the longer term price outlook during the next up cycle..... JMHO...BB