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Technology Stocks : Brillian (BRLC) - a Maker of LCoS for HDTV -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tech101 who wrote (9)	7/16/2004 11:18:40 PM
From: tech101	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27

A Perspective on Investing by: solara5 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 07/16/04 07:40 pm Msg: 1468 of 1470 I've been buying and selling stocks since 1999 and continue to do so surviving with most of my investment funds intact despite going through a period that included one of the deepest and long recessions. In my experience the only thing that leads to above average returns is 1) estimating what will be selling well in the near future and 2) sticking with the company that has good to superior technology in that area. As far as timing - it's impossible and totally unpredictable as to when announcements may occur or when the investing public in general begins to see that a stock is seriously improperly valued. As well the rise and fall of the economy is unpredictible. What may be more easily predicted is whether a company has a strong chance of creating wealth in the next year or so. And if it does, at some time, at some point the market will see that value and often suddenly price it in to the stock. If the economy is down the stock may go down to, but still outperform the averages, and if the economy is way up, the stock will rocket upward, again outperforming the averages. Two good examples of this are Nvidia and ATI Technologies, and a little known canadian company Cinram (CRW.TO). Nvidia and ATI design chips for displaying graphics, primarily for computers. In the period from about 1998 to 2002 an upstart company called Nvidia began out-designing the more venerable ATI and as computer sales soared in '98 to early '00 the stock went from about 10$ to 80$ (before splits). ATI seemed to be a perennially loser until it did a number of things: it acquired new design talent by purchasing the firm that designed chips for Nintendo, it introduced a new design "Radeon" that equalled and eventually surpassed Nvidia, and it changed it's business model and copied what Nvidia had been doing. All of this was in place prior to 2003. In March 2003 ATI hit a low of 6$Cdn and has peaked this year at around 25$ Cdn. What happened? Computer sales recovered, graphics arena expanded to include HDTV, and graphic chips in cell phones and ATI racked up increasing sales and even increased its market share. Was it predictible - well perhaps - it had superior technology, a proven business model and an expanding sector to sell into. Turning to Cinram - this company puts music on CD's and video on VCR tapes. Due to the internet and file sharing most thought Cinram was a "buggy whip" type of company and from 1995 to 2001 or so it declined from 35$ to 2.40$. But due to it business in video, it also became a world leader in producing DVD videos. Further around 2001 it too changed its business model. To make a long story short, due to the rapid acceptance by the public of the DVD format, Cinram peaked in 2004 at around 25$ a nice 10x increase - and all of this through some very difficult economic years. I could give a number of examples on the other side where the product is sub-par in a growing area and after many years that company did not increase in share price. If you are still with me, Brillian is so perfectly situated to increase at least 10x over the next 2 years. It is selling into a growing sector HDTV, that is only held back by high prices, and volume will increase substantially as prices come down. It has superior technology in what may well become the dominant technology - LCOS for HDTV. I personally feel that LCD and Plasma will survive as niche technologies in HDTV - LCD won't gain due to its low contrast and slow speed, and plasma due to its high price and lack of longevity. LCOS is poised to be dominant and will likely share that with TI's DLP technology (though that has its drawbacks too). Last the Brillian business model is somewhat untested now, but in a little while once LCOS begins to make inroads and Brillian proves its delivery capabilities, when a Dell, or Sears, or Best Buy or x number of other large retailers in Asia or Europe want their own branded LCOS HDTV - it may well be a Brillian engine powering it. So like ATI and Cinram, selling into a growing market with great technology and a good business model is what really creates shareholder value. BRLC at 80$ in one year (only 400M$ cap) is entirely possible. finance.messages.yahoo.com