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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tejek who wrote (582789)6/16/2004 10:29:25 PM
From: DavesM  Respond to of 769667
 
Tejek,

Sorry for the delay in responding to your post. You asked for proof that the U.S. GNP was higher in 1939 than 1929, and that the economy was in recovery in June of 1938.

Here are the sources:
From this site, you can download an excel (XLS) file, that has yearly GNP in constant dollars (2000) numbers from 1929 to 2003.
click on "Current-dollar and "real" GDP, XLS"
bea.doc.gov

In 1929, the GNP was $865.2B
IN 1930, the GNP was $790.7B
In 1931, the GNP was $739.9B
In 1932, the GNP was $643.7B
in 1933, the GNP was $635.5B
in 1934, the GNP was $704.2B
in 1935, the GNP was $766.9B
in 1936, the GNP was $866.6B
in 1937, the GNP was $911.1B
in 1938, the GNP was $879.7B
in 1939, the GNP was $950.7B

You can see that the current $ figure was lower, but that is because of deflation (the $US had more buying power in 1939 than 1929), in constant currency, GNP in 1939 was higher than 1929. This means REAL Growth.

bea.doc.gov

Here the NBER's website dating business cycles:
Note, that according to the NBER, that there was a recession from May 1937 till June 1938.

nber.org

How the NBER defines a recession: "We identify a month when the economy reached a peak of activity and a later month when the economy reached a trough. The time in between is a recession, a period when the economy is contracting."

Now oil reserves Iraq vs. Canada.

You claim that: "The original issue was who had the second most oil reserves.....I said Iraq but then you disputed it, claiming Canada. And you are right if you count the oil sands, Canada does have the most reserves. However, much of it is inaccessible whereas Iraq's is........so most oil pundits say Iraq has the second most accessible reserves after the Saudis."

You are correct that most of Canada's reserves are inaccessible. That is why Canada is reported to have 170 billion Barrels of oil and not 1000 billion barrels of oil. The 170 Billion barrels are considered to be recoverable at 2002 prices and 2002 technology.

In 2003, Canada was the worlds 8th largest oil producer. The top ten oil producers in 2003 were:
1. Saudi Arabia
2. United States
3. Russia
4. Iran
5. Mexico
6. China
7. Norway
8. Canada
9. United Arab Emirates
10 Venezuela