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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (123846)	6/16/2004 1:54:28 AM
From: Elmer Phud	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

Joe - Hmm... is it because Intel yields are terrible and are likely to stay that way? Intel should be producing 20M CPUs (mix of Dothan / Prescott / Northwood) from each 300mm fab, and Intel is going from 1 to 4 IIRC. So Intel should be selling 80M CPUs per quarter, and pricing them to sell that many. (If your line of reasoning is to be applied to Intel). Yes, Intel should be producing at least that many processors from each of their 300mm fabs if they are running at full capacity (what is their capacity anyway?) and have good yields. Do you know if they are running at full capacity? I will also tell you that processors are not the only products running on 300mm wafers. So if you don't know what products are running in those fabs and you don't know the capacity of the fabs and you don't know if they are running at or near capacity, how are you to estimate anything? I think people are predicting increase in K8 volume, and at best modest increase of overall volume, from a little below 8M range to 9 - 10M range, well, at least I predict that. That's still well below the capacity of F30. How do you explain that? Is it demand limited? If it is, then what is going to spark greater demand? Demand for K7 seems to be going from poor to somewhat OK, (mainly due to better economy) but still way below potential supply. K8 demand has been improving recently to the point where AMD seems to be with low inventory, which is where the additional demand is coming from, and in a month or 2, this demnand will be met with the new 90nm supply. So limited demand for both K7 and K8 has been the reason that output was less than potential, in your view. You're the first person here who is willing to acknowledge that possibility. The new 90nm supply will need to generate new and greater demand, assuming there is 90nm supply. I think it's time to address the point that AMD will need to take market share from Intel if they are to make any reasonable headway. Intel isn't going to run into capacity constraint, assuming reasonable yields of course.