Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (15350)	6/16/2004 10:34:09 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Hello Russwinter, all still seem OK in Beijing, for now, worldmarket.blogspot.com Chugs, Jay

To: russwinter who wrote (15350)	6/16/2004 11:01:20 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

russ if all you write is true then why is the USX still in rally mode ?

To: russwinter who wrote (15350)	6/16/2004 11:08:56 AM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

MAY 2004 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX TO BE RELEASED ON JUNE 17 AT 8:30 A.M. EDT The Producer Price Index (PPI) for May 2004, originally scheduled for release on June 11, will be released on Thursday, June 17, at 8:30 a.m. EDT, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, announced today.

To: russwinter who wrote (15350)	6/16/2004 8:42:17 PM
From: glenn_a	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Hi Russ. Re: the "endgame" ... Thanks for your suggestions for "what to watch" to view the game unfold. But I was thinking more along the lines of ... assuming things get really bad, which I do, what does the depths of the wreck look like? I find myself leaning to Kurt Richebacher term in the following article ... Message 20227188 ... of "savage deflation". I think for me the question is just how "savage". If it's really, really savage, it is unlikely that we'll see "stagflation in the real economy" IMO. OTOH, if it's only moderately savage, if that's possible, I suppose "stagflation" is a possibility. When I try to visualize a "storyline" to describe the nature of the "story" which the "endgame" will bring to a close, this is what I come up with ... I'm starting to think of "Capital" has this big ugly beast that is very powerful, but it's presently in a very ugly mood. It's in an ugly mood because it has a lifespan of some 60-70 years or so, and the lifespan of the current "Capital" beast is nearing its dying days. When "Capital" is young and virile, it can be generous with its wealth and power - relatively speaking anyway. But when it nears its deathbed, it gets very ornery, because it really, really, really hates to die. It will do anything to avoid this fate. Deceive, lie, steal, and kill. Yet death is precisely the fate of all periods of "Capital" that have existed before it, and it is the nature of life. It cannot be avoided. When "Capital" dies (or breaks if you prefer) this time round, it will take a whole lot of perceived wealth with it. It will hurt as many people as possible, as much as it possibly can. In the end, "Capital" will do whatever it can to survive in whatever form it can. It will carry on of course, but in dramatically reduced form. It will go through a period of death, healing and rebirth, and with any luck a decade or more later, it will begin to enter reemerge like a phoenix from the ashes. Of course, it won't look quite the same. The players and their roles will be somewhat different, and "Capital" herself will be much more modest and humble in its ambitions initially, but arise it will. As a working hypothesis, the proximate precursor to the collapse of "Capital" will be a collapse in aggregate demand. This will be effected by a normalization in the time value of credit/money (i.e. Interest Rate normalization), which will expose massive holes in the global financial system. At that point, the absence of real liquidity (i.e. money in the for of non-debt liquid savings) in the economy will become fully apparent. A mad scramble for liquidity will occur, and problems in the credit structure and capitalization of the global financial system will become evident. However, forestalling the "endgame", will be macro activity that produces precisely the indicators that you list - i.e. commodity shortages, massive monetary stimulus, and asset speculation. In other words, well, a crack-up boom. But to my mind, the "crack-up boom" is not the end-game, but rather a clamactic scene necessary fully set the stage for the final act - which produces the "endgame". Does this make any sense to you Russ? Is it an appropriate analogy? Or do you see things somewhat differently. I'm very interested. Regards, Glenn