Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (15786)	6/17/2004 4:03:48 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95574

any explanations on jabil earnings reductions today? Is this just a one company phenomena or as the market believes it is somethng more the way they have taken similar companies down as well as cisco who is a large customer of jabil.

To: robert b furman who wrote (15786)	6/17/2004 5:24:08 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95574

Thanks to Les Horowitz for this article who pointed it out. It so to the point for this thread that I thought I would print it out below. There are many good charts there as well which can be viewed. schaeffersresearch.com <<Semiconductor Sector Under Fire Rick Pendergraft (rpendergraft@sir-inc.com) 6/17/2004 2:44 PM ET The semiconductor sector is coming under fire today, with both the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX: sentiment, chart, options) and the Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust (SMH: sentiment, chart, options) each down more than 2.5 percent. Meanwhile, option traders are jumping on put options so far today. As of midday, puts on the SOX had seen four times as much activity as the average day. The SMH had seen 31,208 puts change hands, which is 3.1 times greater than the average midday put volume. More important than today's price action is that weakness in the sector for the past few weeks has allowed the 10-week moving average to cross bearishly below the 52-week moving average on both the SMH and the SOX. This is the first time since May 2003 that the 10-week moving average has moved below the 52-week trendline. The last time these moving averages crossed in this manner it proved to be a bad omen for the sector, as both the SOX and the SMH dropped more than 50 percent in the ensuing six months. The sentiment backdrop for the sector is somewhat mixed. There are currently five stocks with low Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratios (SOIR), and four with high SOIRs. The average short-interest ratio is 1.845, which is on the low side, but it is the analysts ratings that really stand out. There are 193 total "buy" ratings on the components of the SOX, 131 "hold" ratings, and only 25 "sell" ratings. The percentage of "sell" ratings is among the lowest when compared with the other sectors that we track. The semiconductor sector was one of the leading sectors during the bull run from March 2003 until December 2003. The question is, will it be leading the next phase of the market? If this case hold true, it appears that the next phase will be in a downward direction. Rick Pendergraft (rpendergraft@sir-inc.com)>>