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To: The Ox who wrote (15797)	6/17/2004 5:54:55 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95526

I just checked the hot list here on SI and 12 of the top 22 threads are politics or coffee shops. A picture is worth a 1000 words.

To: The Ox who wrote (15797)	6/17/2004 5:55:40 PM
From: BWAC	Respond to of 95526

I'll second that

To: The Ox who wrote (15797)	6/17/2004 6:38:13 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95526

Great assessment Michael. This has been quite a day in many ways. All I kept seeing as I surveyed the prognostications of market action today was how JBL caused it all with their earnings report last night. They had good earnings for the current(3rd quarter) but their prediction for the 4th quarter was below analyst "expectations". So with that in mind, I thought I will check this out and see how bad it really was, because in the regular session yesterday it closed at 28.05. Today, it traded as low as 23.00, and closed at 24.49, a loss of 13 percent for the day. I hadn't paid any attention to the release last night, but based on today's news and the reaction of the stock, as well as the reaction of all the other semi-equip stocks, I thought the "sky must be falling" - what horrible outlook had JBL put forth for the 4th quarter that caused such a response? Well, the following news item summary tells all. A real sad story - things have gone to hell in a handbasket - I don't know how JBL will ever live this down. <<Income Increases Ninefold for Circuit-Board Maker Jabil ST. PETERSBURG, Fla., Jun 17, 2004 (Tampa Tribune - Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News via COMTEX) -- Jabil Circuit Inc., one of the Tampa Bay area's largest publicly held companies, said Wednesday that sales and profit surged in its third quarter, but it now anticipates weaker than expected sales in the fourth quarter. Jabil, which makes circuit boards for companies such as Cisco Systems and Hewlett-Packard, reported net income jumped ninefold to $40.1 million, or 19 cents a share, during the three-month period ended May 31. In comparison, the company reported net income during the same quarter in 2003 of $4.5 million, or 2 cents a share. Revenue for the third quarter rose 33 percent to $1.6 billion for the third quarter, compared with $1.2 billion during the same quarter of 2003. The St. Petersburg-based electronics manufacturer credited the strong quarterly results to higher earnings and controlling capital spending. Timothy Main, president and chief executive, said Jabil expects sales in the current fourth quarter to be between $1.6 billion and $1.65 billion, or 25 to 27 cents a share. Analysts had been forecasting core earnings of 28 cents a share on revenue of $1.68 billion in the quarter "We believe the outlook for our business is good and the trend to outsourcing remains strong," Main said.>> [snip]

To: The Ox who wrote (15797)	6/17/2004 9:00:07 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95526

>> The reality is volume has been drying up. Michael, I checked the 10 year chart of NASDAQ on bigcharts.com. The volume now is double the volume of '98 (with the composite at approx the same price level - 2000). So if we assume that day-trading is currently not profitable enough to justify the time and effort, my guess is volume will drop further. Quite likely, if we remove program-trading volume, real-people volume is about the level of '98, allowing for the share splits. >> This is a reflection of the extremely negative sentiment held by almost everyone involved in the market. People are putting their money into the homes. I think home ownership is at all time high, especially considering the higher unit value of housing. Since employment is below highs, that means people have less discretionary money in total terms, and they are putting more of it into housing, leaving less for the enrichment of stock enthusiasts. With stocks not paying dividends, the only reason to own stocks is price appreciation. Brokers traditionally need a prospect of rising earnings to be able to sell stocks on the basis of future appreciation. As long as CEO's refuse to forecast rising earnings, brokers can't sell, and us longs are stuck waiting for actual higher earnings to materialize before anyone gives us hard cash in return for our electronic entry in some share-holder database. Let's hope the CEO's are just sandbagging. Sarmad