"Kerry also is leading in Washington, which is one of the states that are close enough to potentially go to either candidate. A Mason-Dixon Research poll of voters who said they were likely to cast ballots in November showed Kerry leading in the state 46 percent to 42 percent over Bush. The result is within the 4 percentage point margin of error for the poll, taken June 9-11."
<font color=blue> Go WA State!! <font color=black>
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U.S.
Bush's Approval Rating Rises With Outlook on War, Pew Poll Says
June 18 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's approval rating among adults in the U.S. climbed in the last month as more Americans said the military effort in Iraq was going well, according to a poll from the Pew Research Center.
The survey conducted June 3-13, before the release of a government report that undercut the Bush administration's assertion of a link between Iraq and al-Qaeda terrorists, found the president's overall approval rating rose to 48 percent from 44 percent in May. He also gained in the race against Democratic candidate John Kerry, pulling into a statistical tie after trailing by 5 percentage points.
The poll also found Bush, 57, has an edge over Kerry, 60, in the 19 states whose outcome Washington-based Pew says is too close to call. The candidates are vying for the Electoral College votes that are apportioned among states based on population. Those votes, rather than the national tally, determine who wins.
``While we would like to win the popular vote, what wins the election is the state-by-state race,'' said Mark Mellman, the pollster for Kerry, a four-term senator from Massachusetts. ``Both campaigns are focused on winning 270 electoral votes by winning individual states,'' Mellman said in an interview.
Jim Davis, a presidential scholar at Washington University in St. Louis, said the 9/11 Commission report ``strengthens the Democrats' case that he went to war mistakenly.''
A panel investigating the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks reported two days ago that there was ``no credible evidence that Iraq and al-Qaeda cooperated on attacks against the United States.'' Bush, who cited links between Iraq and al-Qaeda as one of the reasons for the war, responded yesterday saying ``numerous contacts'' between Iraq and the al-Qaeda terrorist network justified the U.S.-led war on Saddam Hussein's regime.
`Dead Heat'
Pew's survey, along with national polls by groups including the Gallup Organization, Zogby International and Ipsos Public Affairs over the past two months have showed Bush and Kerry statistically tied or separated by no more than 5 percentage points for support among potential voters.
The Pew poll found that if the election were held today, 48 percent of those polled would support Bush and 46 percent would back Kerry. The result is a ``dead heat'' according to Pew because it falls within the poll's 2.5 percent margin of error. When independent candidate Ralph Nader is included, Bush has a 46 percent to 42 percent edge.
Pew polled 1,426 registered voters nationwide over a period that included the state funeral services for former President Ronald Reagan, at which Bush delivered a eulogy.
Iraq
The Pew survey found fewer people said they are paying close attention to the situation in Iraq, and their opinions about the war have turned positive. In the most recent survey, 39 percent said they were following news from Iraq ``very closely,'' compared with 54 percent who gave that answer in May.
Fifty-seven percent said the situation in Iraq is ``going very well.'' Last month 46 percent said it was going very well.
The national survey mirrors the results from the 2000 election.
In that year, Democrat Albert Gore, the former vice president, beat Bush nationwide by 542,895 votes. He lost the election because of Bush's 537-vote margin of victory in one state --Florida -- after the U.S. Supreme Court halted a recount in a 5-4 decision.
Florida's 25 electoral votes, awarded on a winner-take-all basis, gave Bush 271 electoral votes to Gore's 267, one of the closest presidential elections in U.S. history.
State polling results this week also reflect the 2000 election results.
Key to Election
In 19 states that both campaigns said will be key to the election, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Missouri, the Pew poll found Bush had a 50 percent to 44 percent lead. The error margin for that sample was at least 3.5 percentage points. The other so-called battleground states Pew identified are Arizona, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Tennessee.
A Quinnipiac University Polling Institute survey of registered voters in New York found that in a three-way race including independent candidate Ralph Nader, Kerry would beat Bush in the state 52 percent to 34 percent if the election were held now.
The survey of 1,466 registered voters was conducted June 9- 14 by Quinnipiac University in Hamden, Connecticut, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
New York, Washington
About 32 percent of registered voters nationally didn't cast ballots in the 2000 presidential race, according to Federal Election Commission records.
Kerry also is leading in Washington, which is one of the states that are close enough to potentially go to either candidate. A Mason-Dixon Research poll of voters who said they were likely to cast ballots in November showed Kerry leading in the state 46 percent to 42 percent over Bush. The result is within the 4 percentage point margin of error for the poll, taken June 9-11.
In the last election, Gore got 60 percent of the vote in New York and won the state's 33 electoral votes. Because of population shifts recorded by the 2000 census, New York will award 31 electoral votes this year.
Gore won Washington's 11 electoral votes in 2000 by less that 6 percentage points, or 138,788 votes out of 2.5 million cast.
Contested States
Most of the states are solidly behind either Bush or Kerry, according to historic voting trends and past polls from Quinnipiac, Mason-Dixon, the Los Angeles Times and others.
Based on the most recent polls, Bush is favored to win -- or Kerry isn't actively contesting -- in states including Texas, Georgia, and Indiana that together have a combined 197 electoral votes. Kerry is favored to win in 12 states, including California, New York, Illinois and Connecticut. Those states, plus the District of Columbia have a combined 168 electoral votes.
There are 14 states, including Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where polls taken in the last two months show the two candidates in a statistical dead heat. Those states have 173 electoral votes between them.
Bush and Kerry are spending most of their time campaigning and their money for television advertising in those states. Kerry stopped in Ohio on Wednesday, his 11th visit to the state this year. He has spent about $1 million on advertising in Cleveland media market, according to Nielsen Media Research.
Bush has visited Ohio 17 times since taking office and travels to Washington state today. His campaign has spent about $1.3 million each in the Cleveland and Seattle-Tacoma markets, according to Neilson.
``This is going to be a close election,'' said Nathaniel Persily, a professor of law and political science at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia. ``The campaign will largely be in the corridor between Michigan and Pennsylvania.''
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