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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio candidates - Moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tinkershaw who wrote (972)	6/18/2004 1:01:21 PM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2955

Qcom: I just listened to the CEO of Nextel, Tim Donahue, make a recorded presentation (thanx to Slacker711 for the reference) and related comments on Wireless, 3G and wireless data, customer uptake, and CDMA EVDO vs. Flarion-OFDM. I think the whole 30 minute webcast is a must listen, because much of it has to do with the anticipated practical uptake of wireless data broadband use by JOe-customer, and why he thinks this will really accelerate. see: veracast.com Flarion's OFDM technology could potentially present Qualcomm with an Innovator's Dilemma, and could represent disruptive technology as a discontinuous innovation. Recognizing this is crucial for investors, too, since the anticipated profits from a Qcom investment might be short-circuited by 2008, or so, rather than continuing to, say, 2014. The real question for the Qcom investor is when does 4G or some other discontinuous innovation take root. Nextel is testing Flarion's OFDM wireless data technology in Raleigh, NC. This is a $100 million test. About 600 customers to date. OFDM seems to be much faster than CDMA, presently, with download speeds of 1.5 mb/s, and upload speeds of 250 kb/s. The cost/bit of data is the same as CDMA, at present. However, Donahue specifically mentioned that Nextel had not made any decision as to which technology to use, or when to launch. He specifically stated that Irwin Jacobs and his bunch in San Diego are very impressive, and that they think they will get CDMA to scale up in speed to catch OFDM. The Raleigh test has been going on for 6 months and shows: 1. OFDM is very mobile, with customers using it all over the city, with a "clean handoff". Mobility is pivotal, and customers love it. Customers include realtors, home inspectors, the police, etc. Nextel has concluded that customers are very willing to pay for increased mobility. 2. Nextel has linked up with NASCAR sponsorships, and thinks that next year, as an example of forward thinking applications, that a user will turn on the nextel phone during a NASCAR race, and will be able to dial in via the internet directly into a "pit" conversation between the driver and the pit crew. I've been posting here recently that I think that part of what will drive 3G and Qcom will be previously unimagined applications. Donahue gave examples of just this kind of thing. Really, very, very exciting. The reason to listen to the webcast is not to learn so much about Nextel, as to get a wider view of wireless data, and hear the excitement from the CEO, directly. Even he had said that wireless data has been slow to evolve, but that it is here.....NOW! Again, I have this gut feeling that we are at the nadir of the hockey stick, and the climb should be long and exciting. Apollo