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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: el_gaviero who wrote (15464)	6/18/2004 2:32:16 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

I think Stephen Roach is naive, because he has no idea what he is really advocating. The minute the FED gets serious about running a sustainable marco-policy, in the next minute there will appear real losers on the scene. This means that some groups, classes, and interests will find themselves getting “marked to market” and won’t be much fun to be around. I agree. All this talk from someone who for two years warned about the "double dip recession". Put me in the camp that anything close to "normalization" of interest rates (whatever that means), is going to cause this economy to head staright for one doozy of a recession. Once housing starts to slide, I do not think they will turn it around with lower interest rates either. Many of the new ones are variable rates and too many of the fixed ones were refinanced too close to the bottom. No more stimulus from refis and if actual construction dies, tons of related jobs go to hell right with it. No one thinks another recession is going to happen now. Virtually no one. Not even roach. I say it's time to be watching for one. Mish

To: el_gaviero who wrote (15464)	6/18/2004 2:51:26 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

you left out reference to something called transfer of wealth. we are poorer cause they are a whole fu#$ of a lot richer.

To: el_gaviero who wrote (15464)	6/18/2004 3:14:56 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

el, It looks like the average American is going to suffer from "reversion to the mean" on global labor costs. Yes, India, Mexico and China will see wages rise and approach the mean, but the US has and will see wages fall toward the mean. The continued weakening of trade unions is allowing this to occur even faster than anyone would want. I regularly hear folks say they were laid off from a $150,000 job and were able to find a $35,000 job. That doesn't work well when you counted on that $150,000 to pay off your adjustable mortgage.