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To: Venkie who wrote (13129)	6/18/2004 5:58:52 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13815

tech spending isn't picking up, not for infrastructure Venkie... why do you think it is? We have a number of huge issues, one is the handling of the rbocs by the fcc, another offshoring, this killed demand for US based capex plus some other smaller stuff. The "capex cycle" everyone was waiting for never happened and that is why amat and intel are so far off their 03 highs. In O3, the govt put out a bunch of GDP figures (which I personally think were bogus but anyway) and at that time all assumed we would have an upgrade cycle like usual.... never happened. Intel treads lower every day, cisco isn't going anywhere even JNPR pulled back. The only recovery we are getting this time is a consumer driven recovery and that has helped amzn and ebay but the reality is that business spending was the real engine of the 90s and it created a whole bunch of manufacturing companies and jobs and we have lost all that. THere is only so far we can go with a consumer driven recovery in concert with wage pressure. Offshoring really hurt us too and the offshoring of white collar R&D is a very serious endeavor with numerous consequences and flippantly dismissing this trend as some sort of extension of the business cycle was a mistake imho. I think we are in a bear market now too. But ebay and amzn probably have a great future ahead of them, even in the 70s some stocks managed to rise. We aren't going back to the 90s in my view we are in the 70s.