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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (15861)	6/20/2004 9:41:18 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95500

Taking some of the data from the last post and combining it with share prices is the subject of the table below. This answers the question of - What was the market ready to pay for estimated earnings in Jun 02, 03, and now 04? The numbers show no correlation as you might expect. Examples abound. Let's take CMOS as one example. Year Ern Est Price 02 -1.19 18.20 03 -1.42 8.63 04 0.38 12.62 Also, lets look at AMAT Year Ern Est Price 02 0.20 20.46 03 0.13 15.78 04 0.85 18.14 - 6/18/02 6/18/03 6/18/04 - 6/18/02 EST 6/20/03 EST 6/18/04 EST - CLOSE CUR YR CLOSE CUR YR CLOSE CUR YR SYMBOL PRICE EARNS PRICE EARNS PRICE EARNS AMAT* 20.46 0.20 15.78 0.13 18.14 0.85 ASML 15.51 -0.08 9.68 -0.20 15.67 0.59 ASYT 18.99 -0.09 6.61 -1.00 9.02 0.49 ATMI 24.00 0.01 25.02 0.01 24.11 0.73 BRKS 27.32 -1.60 11.14 -1.65 17.38 0.75 CMOS 18.20 -1.19 8.63 -1.42 12.62 0.38 COHU 18.75 0.14 15.50 -0.08 17.86 0.90 CYMI 39.87 0.80 31.61 -0.45 33.39 1.52 DPMI 33.71 -0.16 21.73 -2.56 20.25 -2.43 EGLS 11.88 -2.24 1.65 -2.34 4.44 -0.43 FSII 7.73 -1.05 3.70 -1.26 7.26 -0.14 HELX 22.04 -0.31 12.70 -0.06 18.52 1.01 KLAC* 49.90 1.07 47.15 0.66 44.84 1.18 KLIC 12.75 -0.97 6.26 -1.11 10.14 1.32 LRCX 20.07 0.05 17.73 0.10 23.46 0.51 LTXX 15.73 -0.93 8.75 -0.91 8.60 0.01 MTSN 6.12 -1.83 3.65 -0.57 9.16 0.65 NVLS* 37.19 0.48 36.57 0.26 29.21 1.06 PHTN 33.03 -0.08 27.25 -0.89 30.91 0.88 PLAB 20.20 0.49 17.44 -0.32 16.84 0.73 SMTL 12.52 -0.38 5.32 -0.30 10.98 0.42 TER* 26.63 -0.95 17.91 -0.57 19.93 1.43 UTEK 14.25 -0.13 18.16 -0.08 15.00 0.35 VECO 26.34 0.15 17.78 0.24 23.59 0.76 WFR 6.66 -1.17 9.94 0.45 9.47 0.73 TOTALS 539.85 -9.77 397.66 -13.92 450.79 14.25 SOX-X 441.97 371.03 453.08 COMPQX1542.96 1644.72 1986.73 * STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (15861)	6/21/2004 10:22:52 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95500

Don, Thank you very much for the table you created. Basically, it shows just how perverse Wall Street is when it comes to valuations in the semi equip sector. Starting with a negative $26 in eps for 2002, the industry improved eps by $7.50 in 2003. In 2004, the industry is on pace to improve eps by $33 over 2003 (or over 400% growth from the previous year). Using your estimates for "next year earnings" in the charts you posted for this weeks movement in the group, the sector is expected to improve eps another $19 ( over the $14.25 2004 total ) to $33 ( or over 130% eps growth ). Translated, we get a forward PE of 14 for a sector who's earnings have made monumental improvements, from the depths of depression to an ongoing recovery. I say ongoing because first, the forward expectations are still showing 100%+eps growth and second, based on what the industry leaders are telling us. The disconnect between actual earnings and the underlying stock prices shows just how Wall Street works. It's quite a scam they have going on. Pretty amazing that none of the analysts who cover the sector point out how their "brothers" have completely ignored the fundamental gains being produced by the industry. If eps gains like these were being produced in any other sector in the market, there would be trumpets blaring every day but not in the semi equip sector! NOPE. Here we get, it's the top of the cycle. Bail out. What a joke. From negative $26 and negative $18 in eps to plus $14 to plus $33! But who cares? Certainly not Wall Street or the analysts who cover the sector. What a joke!?!