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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (15869)	6/21/2004 6:29:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95500

<<From negative $26 and negative $18 in eps to plus $14 to plus $33! But who cares?* Certainly not Wall Street or the analysts who cover the sector.* Michael, You're right, the only think Wall Street cares about is "playing the cycle". In many ways they gotten very good at it. Those that timed the 95/96 cycle, the 97/98 cycle, bought in Oct 98 for a ride to 2000, and most recently, the Oct 02 to Jan 94 cycle, are really "sitting pretty". As we know, the institutions have been net sellers form January, and presently are sitting on their hands as far as buying semi-equips go. I still remember a post from the Jan time frame siting one mutual fund manager who sold in January stating, "I don't want to be 1 day late in selling this cycle". So far, he's right, the Group is down 30+ percent and is now "bouncing along" at that level. There are obviously many institutions out there that feel like CSFB, GS, and others that there is more to go on the downside. Here is an updated table showing the gains for the 98/00 cycle and the 02/04 cycle. At the bottom line the Group was up 752 percent in the 98/00 cycle, and up 194 percent in the 02/04 cycle. - 2000 - 10/08/98 HIGHEST 10/9/02 1/16/04 - CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE PRICE PRICE CHANGE AMAT* 5.59 57.44 928 10.41 24.41 134 ASML 4.38 50.05 1043 5.28 21.76 312 ASYT 3.13 63.88 1941 3.95 18.59 371 ATMI 11.50 60.00 422 12.44 28.37 128 BRKS 8.38 89.69 970 8.95 25.95 190 CMOS 5.00 74.59 1392 6.30 15.96 153 COHU 6.75 59.50 781 9.99 22.22 122 CYMI 6.50 65.25 904 16.74 49.30 195 DPMI 17.88 78.81 341 16.07 23.90 49 EGLS 7.94 43.44 447 1.21 5.60 363 FSII 4.25 23.13 444 2.36 7.92 236 HELX 7.88 75.38 857 7.48 24.93 233 KLAC* 10.94 97.44 791 26.15 62.10 137 KLIC 5.19 43.00 729 1.95 15.20 679 LRCX 2.93 55.56 1796 6.72 34.24 410 LTXX 1.31 50.25 3736 3.33 19.12 474 MTSN 2.75 49.13 1687 1.65 14.26 764 NVLS* 7.30 69.94 858 20.17 42.44 110 PHTN 2.25 90.38 3917 16.15 43.91 172 PLAB 9.50 45.13 375 7.90 20.87 164 SMTL 2.57 23.69 822 4.29 12.52 192 TER* 7.82 110.00 1307 7.22 30.30 320 UTEK 13.56 23.50 73 6.77 32.99 387 VECO 21.63 115.50 434 9.40 32.83 249 WFR 3.63 23.75 554 4.70 11.00 134 TOTALS 180.56 1538.43 752 217.58 640.69 194 SOX-X 189.90 1332.73 602 214.06 557.15 160 COMPQX1419.12 5048.85 256 1114.11 2140.46 92 * STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX