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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (8139)	6/21/2004 6:13:23 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116555

Has to be some POS in there to buy puts oN I would think. Got any favorites? M

To: yard_man who wrote (8139)	6/21/2004 6:21:25 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Bear Market portfolio Building financialsense.com I have never read any reports on the actual returns of small public investors, but from my knowledge of when the masses do their buying and selling, they must generate serious losses on average over any 30 year time period. There is, of course, a very good time to buy early in every major market cycle and an even better time to sell before it ends. But from mutual fund sales figures it's easy to see that most mass buying occurs late in the bull market period and heaviest just before the price drop. There is then a long passage of time, usually several decades, before active buying returns. Since we are now in the fifth year of what will probably be a very long bear market, it is not possible to guess when enthusiastic buying will reoccur. We have to point out to our readers, that most investors think the bear market ended in March of 2003 when a major bear market rally started, so first they have to learn that we are still in a severe bear market. This will of course occur later this year at lower price levels. I have written extensively over the past three years on progress of the bear market, in explaining the Elliott Wave Principal and the great importance of selecting suitable asset classes in order for portfolios to have a good chance of survival in a long and severe bear market. I have not made a strong point about aiming for the return of your capital before you worry about the return on your capital. This brings up the importance of choosing the right place in the risk spectrum between conservative and aggressive. As we get closer to the next major leg down in the market, it is time to emphasize the great importance of this choice. Fortunately, in our portfolios, it is relatively easy to make mid course corrections when needed. Readers should read our essay immediately before this one on FSO which was devoted to this subject.