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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (15660)	6/21/2004 7:09:40 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

<<<keep an eye on employment>>> I agree that the employment is number one to watch, but this RE bubble is feeding on itself and in fact creates significant additional employment. Eventually the bubble will stop growing and start deflation. This will take employment down as well, so the downside will be feeding on itself as well.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (15660)	6/21/2004 8:13:23 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

CFC has ambitious plans to become subprime king: Growing subprime origination market share is likely to be a key focus for the company in the coming years, although management still plans to stay at the higher end of the credit spectrum. - Market share should rise substantially from 6% of the market in 2003 through expansion of the Full Spectrum (CFC’s subprime subsidiary) sales force and growth of the Full Spectrum branch network to 350 branches by 2008 from 128 currently. - All subprime originations are sold, but CFC retains very little credit risk by utilizing mortgage insurance and securitization and sale of retained interests. - CFC’s 2004 year-to-date subprime originations had an average FICO score of 616 and a conservative average loan-to-value ratio of 77%. Only 12% of originations were classified below A- credit quality.