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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: orkrious who wrote (15663)6/21/2004 7:18:30 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 110194
 
if the US$ decline wrecks the US Economy, gold will not skyrocket
and bonds will remain ok

ONE MUST REMEMBER WHERE THE US POWER CENTER LIES

it all depends on whether the Fed will increase their monetization efforts to Weimar-like proportions
if they do, then we enter a new financial world order

THAT IS PRECISELY WHAT I EXPECT TO SEE

much also depends on China allowing a return to US pricing power
and backing off job outsourcing
and subduing commodity purchases
I cannot see all these happening, but can see them passing on higher costs to US endproduct prices

by the way, old formulas do not work
like Hamilton claiming the gold-oil ratio still works

the new world here might involve continued 10%, then 15%, then 20% money supply increases
the monetization is what changes the landscape

it might enable a quick fix on US exporter competitiveness
but the production cost side of the equation is gonna get destroyed
and households will slowly get liquidated

what have we gained if US exporters can compete, but we have $3 gasoline, milk at $4, lumber goes up another 50%, cement is nowhere to be found, spot shortages are prevalent, corporations deal with vanished profit margins, and little ability to raise prices since China is still in our effing faces
?????????????????????????
/ jim