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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (15703)	6/22/2004 10:56:05 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 110194

ild, Yes, I have observed this before. It was called 1975-1982. <G> Everyone sold volatility. Then lost their money when the market took off in August of 1982. But many of them retired before they got caught.

To: ild who wrote (15703)	6/22/2004 1:23:29 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

nice summary by Fleckenstein ... >>Beneficiaries of bozo central banking As I was saying in my daily column last week, the next big trade is the Fed losing its credibility. Whether you want to express that view by being short stocks, or by being long metals or foreign currencies, it doesn't really matter. Though the risk/rewards are different, as well as the timing of when these ideas will work, it's all one trade. If Al goes wild and cranks up rates, the economy would tank. Given all the debt we have, so would the dollar. The financial system would be a mess, and the price of metals would go higher. If he decides to stay behind the curve, at some point inflation will grow until it can't be hidden any longer, causing the dollar to go down and metals to go up. In going over this issue countless times in my mind, I keep coming back to the same place: The dollar is a short sale. Precious metals are going to be winners over time. Stocks are on borrowed time. I wish I knew the timing of all this, but I don't. Nevertheless, I am still looking for clues to try to capture this inflection point as well as I can. <<