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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (15720)	6/23/2004 12:53:45 AM
From: glenn_a	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Hi tooearly. i would wager: "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss" Yeah, I'm sure one way or another, the same power elite will be evident. But amongst power elites there are factions, and these factions are backed by different economic interests. And the interests of Walmart, will be different from Exxon, will be different from Citibank. And there will be conservative factions, and reforming factions in industry, the military, government, etc. So while strictly speaking, "the boss" may be the same, it can certainly change its color rather dramaticly, particularly in the face of failed policy. A particularly dramatic example is the collapse of Wall Street big money in at the end of the 1920's. This led to very different policy options and directives in the 30's. And this collapse of big money had ramifications across the global. Liberal economic policies fell from grace globally and dramatically. As capitalism effectively "broke", nations moved to some form of managed economy, whether it was the New Deal in the U.S. (i.e. effectively a socialist response), or Fascist/Communist control of the state in other countries. And talk about interest rate normalization! If you go from very low interest rates and moderate inflation, to relatively low interest rates (on high quality debt) and significant deflation, that would represent serious normalization of interest rates. Funny what massive, global debt default will do to interest rate structures. So I guess my thesis would be that in terms of organization, the "new boss will be the same as the old boss", the balance of interests could change significantly, and the result of both policy failure and a rebalancing of interests could lead to rather serious reversals in policy. Or not. :) Thoughts? Glenn