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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (8221)	6/22/2004 10:53:08 PM
From: Pogeu Mahone	Respond to of 116555

well that hppened right here in boston in 1990 and i have to say i enjoyed it. I sold my properties over the last year and 6 months later have sellers remorse<VBG/NG> Here to 1990 real soon.. but this time the banks have sold all the paper world wide,so i think it could take a long time for property to collaspe here, a grind .. bring it on.. opps-g- <<and that time, no many will be bargain-hunting>> every one has to brush their own teeth..

To: TobagoJack who wrote (8221)	6/23/2004 12:52:23 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

U.S. growth strong but housing market at risk-UCLA Tue Jun 22, 2004 04:00 AM ET SAN FRANCISCO, June 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy will grow 4.3 percent this year as business spending improves and payrolls expand, but a recession could be around the corner if rising interest rates hammer the housing market, according to a widely watched forecast. The latest outlook released on Tuesday by the UCLA Anderson Forecast for gross domestic product growth this year was slightly better than its projected 4.1 percent in March, but the strong pace masks concerns about factors driving growth, said economist Edward Leamer. While many analysts expect rising productivity to continue fueling strong growth, the director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast said the economy may be feeling the "final ripple effect" of the Internet boom. Once it passes, growth will return to a historical average of 3.1 percent per quarter, said Leamer, one of the first economists to flag the most recent recession. For 2005, Leamer expects 3.2 percent growth, followed by 3.3 percent in 2006. "I think it's a return to normal and that the productivity point is still open," Leamer said. Additionally, GDP growth will return to a 3-percent trend as stimulus from tax cuts and low interest rates, which created a "credit-driven spurt" in growth, fades, Leamer said. The widely anticipated upturn in interest rates may unravel the housing market, which could trigger a recession perhaps next year or in 2006, Leamer said. Low interest rates have fueled a housing boom, robbing the economy of future home sales and guaranteeing weakness in the housing market in coming years, according to Leamer. The market will further weaken as rates rise and may even collapse, Leamer said. Battered by rising rates, the housing market fell in advance of eight of the 10 economic downturns since World War Two, Leamer said. "When we see the next downturn in this country, it's highly likely it will be on the consumer side, particularly with homes," Leamer said. "The question is will that weakness be strong enough to cause an official recession?" reuters.com

To: TobagoJack who wrote (8221)	6/23/2004 9:22:36 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. mortgage applications steady; refinancings slip By Mike Maynard WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The Mortgage Bankers Association's composite index of mortgage loan applications nosed 0.1 percent higher last week on a seasonally adjusted basis. Applications for purchases rose by 1.1 percent in the week ended June 18, while applications for refinancings slipped 1.7 percent. Refinancings accounted for 33.4 percent of the week's total applications, down from 33.8 percent a week earlier. Adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for 33.5 percent of total applications last week, down from 34.7 percent. The MBA said the average contract interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.21 percent from 6.34 percent in the week ended June 11, while a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.61 percent from 5.73 percent. The rate on a one-year ARM rose to 4.10 percent form 4.08 percent.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (8221)	6/23/2004 9:27:53 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

China's measures to slow economy raises credit risks for corporations -Moody's Wednesday, June 23, 2004 11:16:38 AM afxpress.com HONG KONG (AFX-ASIA) - Moody's Investors Service said China's measures to slow its economy are "increasing the credit risks" for corporations in the mainland, said Moody's Vice-President and Senior Credit Officer Tom Byrne. He believes the overheating in China's economy is not "broad-based, but exists in certain sectors." China's measures to tackle the overheating, therefore, are unlikely to impact on its sovereign rating, he said, but raise risks for the credit worthiness of companies in affected industries "The chances of its economy landing hard are remote, though its measures to cool its economy had increased the credit risks of corporations in China," Byrne said He expects China's economy to achieve a gross domestic product growth of 7-8 pct and that would mean that the government would have achieved its goal of slowing the economy while keeping its economic fundamental intact Although the chances are remote for a hard landing, Bryne said that would be "when China's GDP slows to about 3 to 4 pct, at which rate we know the government needed to hit the breaks really hard." He said China's external trade will unlikely be affected by its economic cooling measures, and although he expects inflation to rise by no more than 5 pct this year, he believes China's economy to be manageable Signs of overheating in China have included rising consumer prices and frantic investment in sectors such as auto, steel, alumina, cement and real estate The government though has sought to slow the rapid pace of expansion by raising capital requirements for projects and clamping down on bank lending Moody's raised its foreign currency rating for China to "A2" from "A3" last October on the country's strong external payment position. Its rating outlook is stable. fxstreet.com

To: TobagoJack who wrote (8221)	6/23/2004 9:55:31 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Sterling under pressure after less hawkish-than-expected BoE minutes Wednesday, June 23, 2004 10:14:28 AM LONDON (AFX) - Sterling was under pressure after the minutes of the Bank of England's last rate setting deliberations came in a little less hawkish than market expectations At 10.48 am, sterling fell to 1.8159 usd from 1.8208 before the news. While the vote for a quarter point rate hike on June 10 was unanimous, unlike the May deliberations, there was no discussion of a bigger increase, and one unnamed member of the Monetary Policy Committee came close to dissenting The news allayed concerns that the central bank will hike rates in July. "The minutes indicate that the next hike will be in August at the earliest, with the MPC waiting to determine whether the hikes begin to take effect, especially with regard to the housing market," said Mitul Kotecha, global head of forex strategy at Calyon "The minutes will come as a slight relief for short-sterling futures and weigh on the pound," he added.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (8221)	6/23/2004 10:01:09 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

RPT Norway oil strike to worsen, cut output by further 260,000 bpd from Monday Wednesday, June 23, 2004 9:48:57 AM OSLO (AFX) - The strike that has hit Norway's oil sector will worsen from next Monday, when the country's output is set to fall by a further 260,000 barrels per day, said the Federation of Oil Workers (OFS) union The additional production stoppages will hit the Norwegian Continental Shelf's Heimdal field and Norne production ship, where 100 employees have downed tools, the union said Some 140,000 bpd will be lost at Norne and Heimdal, and a further 120,000 bpd from the Grane field, which will be affected by the closedown of Heimdal. The new shutdowns will start at midnight Sunday, and come into full effect from Monday, it said The escalation of the strike will also cut gas production by 30 mln cubic meters per day The strike, called by the OFS six days ago amid a dispute with employers over pensions and work conditions, has to date shaved some 370,000 bpd off Norway's normal daily output of around 3 mln The government reiterated this morning that it has no plans for now to mediate in the dispute "The authorities are monitoring the conflict ... continuously but, given its current scale, the government has no reason to intervene," Labour Minster Dagfinn Hoeybraaten told state broadcaster NRK Bente fxstreet.com