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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: carranza2 who wrote (51503)6/24/2004 11:15:22 AM
From: michael97123  Respond to of 793903
 
What if bush loses? The real problem is to show the US population some real results prior to the election. Only thing keeping bush close right now is how bad a campaigner kerry is, but if the news is bad in late october, no way bush will win. And then our policy will revert to the euro/state dept template and all of this perhaps will have been for naught. And even if we are winning but the going continues to be real tough, we will lose because bush will lose unless kerry surprises us big time. Thats why zarquawi may be right and Belmont wrong. Mike



To: carranza2 who wrote (51503)6/24/2004 6:57:24 PM
From: Dayuhan  Respond to of 793903
 
America doesn't have the only lone hand. In fact, Iran's hand is in many ways stronger than ours. They aren't playing it yet, because they don't have to - the Sunnis are doing the bully work for them, and they have no incentive to make a mess.

The Iranians will try to use their influence with the Shiite community - and the factionalism of the other communities - to get a government sympathetic to them elected. If we support a free election, which we must, it will be hard for us to stop them.

If they achieve this, we are toast, becasue if an elected government tells us to go away, we have to do it.

The problems don't end with an election. The problems begin with an election. Up until now, we could dictate. After June 30, we can't dictate, but we have so much leverage that it will be difficult to resist us. Once there's an election, our influence drops way, way off.