To: epicure who wrote (137760 ) 6/24/2004 12:00:46 PM From: Neocon Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500 It is a good article. I especially like the part where they acknowledge that the war and occupation has not been very brutal, and when they acknowledge that Iraq has some things in its favor that may balance out the situation:Ironically, the swiftness with which the United States toppled Saddam's regime and the avoidance of civilian casualties may actually work against the success of the reconstruction, Bellin said. In Germany and Japan the experience of total defeat and devastation broke down old conventions and opened the people to new ideas. The much shorter war in Iraq with relatively little loss of life on the part of the civilian population did not produce this psychological impact, while the sanctions imposed on Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait in 1990 have probably increased resistance. "The hardships under the sanctions were like a slow bleed rather than a sudden mortal shock, and a slow bleed often makes people more able to cope." Bellin's prognostications were not all negative, however. She pointed out that Iraq, with its huge oil reserves, may be economically better off than Japan and Germany, which did not take off economically until the late 1940s or early 1950s. And while Iraq does not have any national figures with the prestige of the Japanese emperor to authorize reconstruction efforts, it is possible that someone like the Shiite leader Ali Sistani may emerge as a unifying force. In the end, it may be the unpredictability of events that offers the greatest hope for a positive outcome in Iraq. Maier made this point with reference to the 1989 collapse of the Soviet Union. "If you don't allow for surprise, you're not doing your job as a historian. 1989 was thrilling because so many historians like me said it would never happen." My sole point in invoking Japan and Germany was to say that it is possible to establish democracy in Iraq, not to say that it is all the same. Thanks for posting an article supporting my position.