To: slacker711 who wrote (41283 ) 9/10/2004 11:24:51 PM From: slacker711 Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 196995 Chip-packaging houses see mixed signals in Q3siliconstrategies.com By Mark LaPedus Silicon Strategies 09/10/2004, 3:38 PM ET SAN FRANCISCO — Providers of IC-packaging and test services are feeling the brunt of the current slowdown in the semiconductor industry, but some vendors are hurting more than others, according to a report from RBC Capital Markets Inc. here. Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc. (ASE), Siliconware Precision Industry Co. Ltd. (SPIL), and STATS ChipPAC Ltd. are seeing mixed results in the IC-packaging and test markets, while Amkor Technology Inc., ASE Test Ltd., and ChipMOS Technologies Bermuda Ltd. are struggling, according to the report. The laggard in the sector is U.S.-based Amkor. The company's "outlook is still murky as we believe Amkor is losing market share," according to the report from RBC, an investment banking firm. "We expect weakness in wireless due to 1) major customer Intel announced weaker-than-expected flash shipments and 2) exposure to GSM inventory in China through customer [RF Micro Devices Inc.]" In contrast, Taiwan's ASE, the world's largest IC-packaging and test house, is projected to meet its "top-line" estimate of NT$21.7 billion (US$656.2 million) in the third quarter of 2004, which is up 7 percent over the second period, according to RBC. ASE is seeing seasonal strength with its chip-set customers, such as ATI, Nvidia, Via and SiS. ASE is also experiencing "selective strength in wireless, particularly CDMA for Qualcomm," according to the report. However, ASE's affiliate, ASE Test, is likely to report sales of $164-to-$165 million in the third quarter, down 8-to-9 percent over the previous quarter, according to the report. This is below RBC's expectations, which calls for ASE Test to report $172 million in sales for Q3, down 4 percent over Q2. "We still attribute the top-line weakness, primarily to a slowdown in the camera module assembly business for Agilent, [which is] expected to be down 15 percent quarter-over-quarter," according to the report. Taiwanese rival SPIL "is still tracking in line aided by seasonal strength in computing, with customers including Nvidia, ATI, and Via," according to RBC. "LCD driver IC packaging looks soft in Q3, but we maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for Q4 as we expect customers to return for a seasonally strong Q4." Taiwan's ChipMOS, whose investors include SPIL, is tracking in line with expectations despite a lull in its core businesses. ChipMOS is seeing a "weakness in LCD driver IC packaging as a result of excess supply continuing, but we expect a return to growth sometime in early Q4," according to the report. "We also expect strength in the company's memory testing business as DRAM markets look solid in 2H:04, particularly for DDR2." Meanwhile, Singapore's STATS ChipPAC's Q3 is also tracking in line with expectations, according to RBC. The company does see a "mixed outlook for wireless as we expect CDMA strength from customer Qualcomm, and GSM weakness in China from customer ADI," the report said. "Computing is strong as they package chipsets for Intel and graphics for Nvidia."