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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: clean86 who wrote (26205)	6/25/2004 5:20:46 PM
From: Pam	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 60323

Clean, I think, Sandisk will make the numbers but that won't be enough. The street is looking for a significant overall growth in the bits consumed. If Sandisk makes the numbers at the expense of Lexar's and the likes, I am afraid, the reaction to Sandisk will be no different than what we have seen in the past 3 quarters, although less punishing, I hope, as it has already come down a lot. I would not underestimate the Shorts at all. They do their homework well and are far smarter than they get credit for and better analysts than the people who write the reports. I am not saying they are never wrong, they also get hurt, but in general they are a smart bunch and the last 6-9 months is a good proof of it. Personally, I think, I should have bailed-out when the chart got messed-up and waited for more opportune time like under 20's to get back in. We all (longs) were clearly out-manuevered. I don't think these are the individual investors, because individuals would hardly have the balls to short at these levels (especially because they are seeing nice eps in the rear-view mirror and good projected earnings in the coming quarters). They wouldn't dare sell Sandisk short. At least not in the last month, when we saw an increase in short position at a pace faster than previous months. Individuals generally like "fallen angels" and they like to invest in "last years" best-performing mutual-funds! Now, folks don't fire away those nasty mails at me, I have used the word "generally". I know, all the Silicon Investor members are a smart bunch! I believe, the price-elasticity in NAND is extremely important here and it better show-up soon. The reason is if demand is not picking-up (which I think has been the case in the last couple of months, but maybe that will change soon as Sandisk has maintained it takes 60-90 days for the demand to pick-up once the prices have been reduced), Sandisk will lose its lead. Others will have time to catch-up with them while the demand is growing at a pace more moderate than the production efficiencies. As I have said before, we need a shortage of Nand flash for Sandisk to make a new high else we will have a hard time even to get to 30! I remain optimistic, but have learned a lot holding Sandisk over the past year and watch it go up and then down again. I am sure, it will make me a better analyst next time around. Again, this is all just my opinion and I have been wrong many times in the past and will continue to make mistakes to learn something new. Read all the news items, try and understand the information that is out there and analyze it well to make a decision that best suits you. That way even if one is wrong, its okay, one did all one could to be in that position! There should be no regrets. My policy is to listen to all the views and make my own analysis and draw my own conclusions. -Pam