The Human Anti-Histamine
Kerry Bores Upward
Andrew Sullivan - Sunday Times UK
It may be hard to recall now but only a few months ago, very smart analysts of American politics were calling for John Kerry to withdraw from the Democratic primaries in order to avoid complete humiliation. His negative-charisma, his fathomlessly boring speeches, his stiff public persona, and the absence of any interesting ideas - all these seemed to have sent his candidacy into a tailspin. Up against the energy and excitement of the Napoleon of Vermont, Howard Dean, Kerry seemed impossibly dry.
And so no one noticed. For almost the entire campaign, Kerry was essentially absent. And then, in a matter of a few weeks, he won it all. After all the deranged drama of Dean and the cheery charm of John Edwards, Kerry suddenly seemed a safe bet. Tedium was in. And when I say tedium, I mean levels of boredom that ordinary mortals cannot hope to emulate. The minute Kerry starts to speak, you can hear the life drain out of a room. When he appears on television, the right hand gravitates almost instinctively toward the remote. The word 'pomposity' doesn't quite capture the condescension of the man. Think Clinton's ambition matched with Gore's endlessly self-callibrating mind. Now remove all charm whatsoever. There's a reason he went un-noticed in the primary campaign. No sane human being would ever want to notice him. He's a human anti-histamine. He's Botox for the brain.
And, just as in the primaries, this stealth-bore strategy is starting to work in the general election campaign as well. For weeks, Kerry has been all but non-existent on the American stage. And the less you see of him, the better he does. His major advertising campaign has touted his Vietnam record - about the only faintly interesting part of his biography, and one long in the distant past, when Kerry was the same bore, but better looking and with a funnier, plummier accent. Of his two decades of spectacularly undistinguished service in the U.S. Senate, his campaign speaks sparsely, as well it might. Only the Bush campaign has focused on this record, making Kerry out to be somewhat to the left of Michael Moore in a tough series of often-deceptive ads in swing states. And, indeed, the ad buy did drive Kerry's unfavorables up - but not disastrously, and not yet to the levels of the president.
And so Kerry now has a lead of between four and eight percent, depending on who's counting. More striking is the fact that, in the latest polls, Bush's positive ratings on Iraq and terrorism have actually increased on a month ago - but the gap between him and Kerry hasn't narrowed. Moreover, almost all of Bush's recent gains have been among wavering conservatives and Republicans. The "persuadables" in swing states haven't budged an inch.
Kerry also has a few things going for him in the next few weeks. However noble and vital the transfer of power to a post-Baathist Iraq, it's bound to provoke even more violence from the Jihadists who are currently exploiting the power vacuum in that country. More casualties and more chaos only spell more trouble for the president. Kerry, meanwhile, has positioned himself rather shrewdly on foreign policy. There is barely a smidgen of difference between him and Bush on future policy in Iraq. But Kerry - by his very tedious Establishment bona fides - still exudes a sense of the steady hand, and he's free from association with the errors and screw-ups that have plagued the intervention so far. He also gets to tell the American public that he can bring along the allies more successfully than the president: Bush without the baggage. Win-win, as far as Kerry is concerned. And most of the time, he doesn't even have to do anything. The controversy over whether the Bush administration sanctioned torture in military jails, for example, damaged the president these past two weeks, without Kerry really saying a thing. The Washington press corps is also now in full attack-Bush mode. All Kerry has to do is get out the way - which he has been smart enough to do.
And the fundamental task ahead - in both Afghanistan and Iraq - is what can only be called "nation-building." Republicans simply aren't that good at doing this. They know how to fight and win wars, but recontructing shattered nations is not something that warms their cold hearts or sends their testosterone racing. But Democrats love it. It enables them to look internationalist, while never firing a shot. They get to have long discussions with the Dutch and South Koreans and U.N. bureaucrats - the kind of people Kerry intuitively gets along with. And they have experience in this. Look at Kosovo. You can almost see future secretary of state Richard Holbrooke dropping in on Mosul now.
Americans, moreover, are somewhat drained. War is a terrifying and enervating thing. The fear of annihilation at any moment at the hands of terrorists with WMDs is a difficult thing to live with - and, fairly or unfairly, they associate this fear with the Bush administration. The soothing dullness of a Boston Brahmin can appear somewhat attractive in contrast. Put it together with a docile base (the Democratic left so hates Bush they almost don't care that Kerry's war-policy is now identical to the president's) and a big war-chest (Kerry has been setting records with anti-Bush fundraising) and you have a pretty good recipe for continued success.
The danger, of course, is that Kerry will soon have the limelight or will get far enough ahead for peole to think about him more deeply. As soon as people think of him as something other than the un-Bush, his numbers may drop. And the Bush team has yet to unleash its most vicious distortions of Kerry's record. By October, they'll be running ads making Kerry out to be a tax-raising, Commie-loving, atheist drag-queen. But Kerry has an option Bush doesn't. He'll unveil a vice-president, and if he's smart enough to pick John Edwards, he can immediately both add adrenaline to his campaign, and also once again let someone else steal the show a little. Staying in the background is Kerry's best bet.
Can you bore your way to the most powerful job on the planet? I have a feeling we're about to find out.
June 27, 2004, Sunday Times.
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