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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mishedlo who wrote (8461)6/28/2004 7:11:14 PM
From: Roads End  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Loosing out to Ditech would have been more honest. Guy's like NCEN and Ditech are eating the conventional WM types lunch....for now.



To: mishedlo who wrote (8461)6/28/2004 7:11:44 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 116555
 
impact of higher rates will be both surpringly sudden
they are certain to be amplified
because it shows up immediately in home equity loans, in mastercards, and in vendor finance deals

also, the amplification comes from the extreme dependence in the financial markets AND the real economy

we had a violent bond revolt this spring WITHOUT any announced official Fed actions
imagine what happens when they do hike
the slowdown will be very quick
in 1999 we had several rate hikes, and got a stock bust, a telecom bond bust, and a recession
we are likely to see the same very soon, TIMES 3-4

on Monday report, I put together a comparison
"A WALK PAST 1994 MEMORY LANE" on Financial Sense
some nice graphs in a pictorial walk to expose key risks, which are much much greater than in 1994
these effect could have political impacts ultimately

financialsense.com

/ jim



To: mishedlo who wrote (8461)6/28/2004 7:41:42 PM
From: S. maltophilia  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Gosh. Wonder what'll happen if short term rates ever get out of the negative (real inflation adjusted) range? -g-