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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (19364)	6/29/2004 1:13:30 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Respond to of 78717

Paul - NYB: When I looked at it, I noticed the big after hours jump...but tomorrows another day and after WAMU [WM] got WHAMMED [OUCH!!], I'd expect thrifts of all stripes to lose altitude...perhaps justifiably so. While I've maintained positions in WM and a thrift CEF,BTO, I'm very reluctant to start making contrarian bets that the worst of the interest rate cycle is discounted. WM is a poster child for this concern...it wasn't and has never been 'expensive'...in fact it's cheaper than comparables by most measures...Yet, unless it bounces back from an oversold position due to thin, after-hours trading, it has taken quite the hit. The message...there's more discounting to be done before the bottom of this rate cycle. And I don't rule out a secular turn in the rate/inflation conditions...I remember the 70's and early 80's; owning stocks wasn't fun...especially rate-sensitive stuff.