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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (51986)	6/29/2004 7:57:59 PM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793899

Canadian Election. As I (ahem!) predicted, we now have a minority government. Lott isn't entirely correct. It was not a bad night for Conservatives, it just was not a great night. They made some inroads into Ontario, which is a good start. They didn't make it in 905 area code around Toronto; the soccer moms just aren't that sure about them. Conservatives are going to have to get serious about Quebec and this will mean dealing with some of their more vociferous members who have righty views on social issues. Quebeckers can handle righty fiscal views but are very liberal socially. The Liberals were defeated because they lost Quebec to the Bloc Quebecois, the separatist party. It was a protest vote by Quebeckers against the the Liberal patronage machine becomng too narrow in its largesse. Quebec has always been a base for the Liberals and it's difficult to form a national majority government without Quebec seats (20% of country's population). They did, however keep some Ontario support. At dissolution of Parliament standings were: Liberals 168 Conservatives 73 Bloc Quebecois 33 NDP 14 Independent 9 Vacant 4 After election: Liberals 135 Pop vote 37% Conservatives 99 Pop vote 29% Bloc 54 Pop vote 12% (only in Quebec) NDP 19 Pop vote 16% Independent 1 (he's a Conservative) It's most likely the liberals will be able to rule for a short while with support from the socialist NDP but Martin is a fiscal conservative and that's probaby where they'll come a cropper. Also, the NDP said their price for cooperation will be proportional representation - we'll see just how corrupt the Liberals really are.... It won't be easy because even with NDP support they'll still be a seat short of a majority. The Liberals have governed in Canada so often because they usually stick to the Canadian center of opinion. They have no particular ideology and usually move with the majority of Canadian opinion, making allowances for the Quebec factor and Ontario requirements. Liberal Party of Canada orientation is not to policy but to governing. The Conservatives in Canada have been eating their babies ever since the sixties. Canadian center can accomodate their fiscal views, generally, but can't deal with the social policy espoused by some of their more righty spokesmen. Stephen Harper, their leader, espouses center-ish social views but so far hasn't been able to convince enough Canadians his party is moderate that way - or that he can do a Reagan and double cross his righty fringe - and this leaves him vulnerable to Liberal attacks. Conservatives haven't yet been able to convince Canadians they have solutions to the medical care issue that won't make it worse than it is. If they do, you can be sure the Liberals will adopt them.... The lightening rod issues tend to be in areas which constitutionally are provincial resposibilties but which have a federal component either through the criminal code (eg: gun control) or federal spending power ( eg: health care). So, the Liberals lost 33 seas and the Conservatives gained 26. Liberals lost on the basis of corruption (as in badly administered Quebec patronage) and Conservatives didn't do as well as they might have by remaining too regional (Western) and not coming to an accomodation with conservative forces in Ontario and Quebec. If I were Paul Martin, the Liberal leader, I would try to move my legislative agenda on a case by case basis and not try to make a formal coalition alliance with anyone. Cooperation would be forthcoming probably for about a year while all parties get ready for another election. For Stephen Harper and the Conservatives there is an opportunity to continue making alliances with conservatives in Ontario and Quebec and to make clear to Canadians what advantages his solutions with respect to medicare and taxes have, and the limits of his party's social agenda. He has an opportunity to shape Canadian policy discussion over the next year and he must take advantage of it.