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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (26260)	6/29/2004 11:44:47 AM
From: Pam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Hi Slacker, <I would expect that we should see some increase in the average megabytes per unit this quarter but I dont see this as the key to Sandisk's future performance. The problem is that the supply that is coming on-line is likely to be more than the current markets ability to absorb it.> Well, I would like to see the average megabit per card to move closer to 380's or so by year-end from 189MB last q. I think, by Christmas, 512MB would be the sweet-spot. For near-term (this q and next q), Sandisk can grow at the expense of others and after that, hopefully, demand will increase from adoption rate of digital camcorders and higher-capacity jump drives. The DSC market will continue to provide decent opportunities and growth over last year and slowly we get ready for significant revenues from camera phones sometime next year and the low end products can be dumped under "Shoot & Store" category. But for Sandisk to really do well, we need to create a shortage or somewhat tight-supply conditions for NAND again! -Pam

To: slacker711 who wrote (26260)	6/29/2004 1:56:48 PM
From: Ausdauer	Respond to of 60323

Slacker, I agree with your post. SNDK needs growth at the upper MB range and that means USB key chain drives, large CF and SD cards for digital SLR's and PDA's,... Initially the phone market will be high volume, but low capacity. SNDK's pre-emptive price reductions were done to punish card assemblers, discourage competition, and drive new applications for flash. It may even have been done to get Samsung to reconsider an MLC license. Either way, the price reductions almost necessitate a growth in high capacity individual unit sales. That is the risk part of the equation. I am happy to see next Q's c.c. announced and no pre-announcement of earnings shortfall. That must mean that Q2 is in the bag and that the outcome is neutral or favorable. Aus@sighofrelief.com