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To: Perspective who wrote (100282)	6/30/2004 1:48:47 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Picture with better formatting: Season: SUMMER FALL WINTER SPRING BONDS - 0 + + + 0 - - STOCKS - + - + COMMODITIES + 0 - - - 0 + +

To: Perspective who wrote (100282)	6/30/2004 2:01:05 PM
From: elliottrules	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

bobcor, FWIW, I had a Winter(Late Deflation) ending in 2002-3. From there we began a new k-wave, Spring (early Inflation) that should not see a major economic depression for 50-60 year. Bonds down, stocks and commodities up for the next 15 years. Gold up

To: Perspective who wrote (100282)	6/30/2004 2:02:59 PM
From: At_The_Ask	Respond to of 209892

Actually it's a good post. No excuses needed. One guy I used to work with had some thirty year bonds purchased at the peak in the seventies. I didn't go into it too much but they must have appreciated tremendously. If we are entering the reflationary period now it seems a person could short some bonds and forget about it for a decade or two. Same with commodity investments made now.

To: Perspective who wrote (100282)	6/30/2004 8:23:34 PM
From: dpl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

"It is clear that we have left the disinflationary Fall season. What seems to be in question is whether we are still in deflationary Winter, or whether monetary policy will be successful in short-circuiting the season and bringing an early reflationary Spring." The "deflationary winter" has not begun yet.It starts when the last asset bubble bursts.This is were you get the deflation.Asset bubble bust produces debt bubble bust which produces deflation. The reason most are confused is we(USA) had one asset bubble(RE) AFTER the other burst(stocks).This is rare.In 1929 there was only one(stocks) and in Japan 1990 there were two at the same time which acted as one.When RE bursts you will have your winter. David