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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (19373)	6/30/2004 11:15:17 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78515

I dont know how everyone else did. I Lost 3.5% in q2. Mostly on low priced stocks and precious metals. My gut tells me that there is more to the wm story than the company has disclosed. I wonder what Nygren is doing. Oakmark has a huge position there.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (19373)	7/1/2004 9:53:38 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78515

I got one as well - ELX down 12% on earnings warning: finance.yahoo.com I am holding on to my small position for now.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (19373)	7/1/2004 10:55:50 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78515

I have sold CDT yesterday and bought some OVTI. Analyses: CDT is still cheap on PSR basis, however, it is unclear whether even the combined Belden-CDT can raise prices enough to have a high return in the future (recent ROE was ~3-5%). The merger eliminates one competitor, but there are others. CDT-Belden production is located mostly in US, which implies high costs. Customers bought a lot of product last quarter before the merger, so next quarter may be low. CDT-Belden also benefited from weak US dollar. Both companies are conservatively managed, they paid off a bunch of debt even in the tough 2000-2003 years, so they may fare well. Option rewards to Belden executives are quite high and comprise over 25% (!) of all options awarded. I don't like this. At the current price CDT-Belden is probably a weak hold if one expects the pricing environment to improve. I would discount a recent speculation that the combined company will be taken over by a larger company once the merger clears. I see no substance to this speculation. OVTI is cheap if the current sales, margins and ROE (19% last year, 27% last Q) can be sustained. However, there is no obvious barrier of entry for competitors and if the market does not grow fast enough, the margins will be squeezed. There is some possibility that they still have lead over their competitors. Furthermore, they are likely to be speculative and high volatility play, so short term investors may find an exit point even if the long-term future is unclear. It is rather risky play, so I would not suggest more than a small dabble ("double" :)))) investment. Jurgis

To: Paul Senior who wrote (19373)	7/7/2004 6:31:12 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78515

very interesting show and comments on cnbc just now- very negative on the us car makers, yahoo overpriced, not enough 3rd quarter guidance to justify holding stocks in view of projected inflation. looks like a big meltdown in internet stocks-probably wont be very good for semiconductors either.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (19373)	7/27/2004 2:01:48 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78515

More bad news for CAH holders. (Stock drops on sudden departure of CFO). I'll add just a very few shares now to my small, but losing position. finance.yahoo.com I'm not so much concerned long-term about financial shenanigans here (of which there may be valid suspicions), as I am about the viability of their drug distribution model. Margins have been shrinking over the years; rev. growth that I see may be declining as both ends - drug makers and consumers - seriously seek to cut costs of expensive drugs. CAH does have other businesses (e.g. medical device sales) that are a large component of overall revenue and that are growing and promising, but these may not strong enough to compensate for the drug distribution issues that investors are looking at.