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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (51329)	7/1/2004 1:53:12 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

I am long cash as well. I just bought a bucket of Iraqi Dinars. Like you said, all risks priced in. 1m Dinars is about $1400 US. Pre-Kuwait invasion it was US$3=1 Dinar. Will 1m Dinar be worth $3m? I don't know, but if Iraq fails, the loss of a few grand on a few million Dinar will be the least of my worries. I've been looking at the Iraqi market also. The US wants to make the Baghdad market the premier market in the Middle East. With Iraq still holding 15% of global oil reserves, assuming the damage to the oilfields is not to extensive (the engineers haven't been able to get in and assess yet) I'd say that the Iraqi exchange has a chance. Energy would be the natural sector of interest but currently, in Iraq, the oil industry is state-owned. Iraq, seeing the problems with the lack of transparency in ARAMCO in Saudi Arabia, is interested in changing that. I'm sure the Americans are as well. Being state-owned means that there are no co-production agreements, and even some 'questionable' contracts put in place with countries like Syria during the oil embargo will likely be deemed in violation of the UN resolutions and invalidated. So, going down the road, the energy sector could show some promise, but not right now. I think the most promising sector on the Iraqi exchange, and the one I'm most interested in investing in, is the construction industry. The sheer demand for steel, concrete to rebuild Iraq is stunning. There is, however, a great deal of support from countries, organizations and industry in addition to the US. (US companies like Home Depot are sending over donations of building materials). Now that the handover has taken place many foreign companies waiting on the sidelines are eager to enter Iraq. Due to the speculative nature of investing in the Iraq market, one would expect no less than 35% IRR on any deals, and much more, possibly. I'm going to keep following developments in the construction space there. Maybe we need a new board on SI to cover Iraqi investments?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (51329)	7/1/2004 7:17:15 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Remember the false dawn starting last March? Well, it is daylight now. The events, right now, (Iraq hand over and interest rate increase) are the continental divide. From now on it is going to be a different ball game. What is going to be the tune? Lets go back to August 2001: Job losses Scandals No economic growth Then there was 911 and it was the agenda. Bomb the piles of rubble left by the Russians and there was not more to carry the day after that. Next came adventure in the Iraq sands. It carried the administration for 14 months. Now there are no more "fights", "enemies" nor "threats". Now we are back to Auguts 2001 before the 911 and the Iraq distractions. What can the Bush administration show to the American public?