BP cements Tangguh gas deal, but more needed Tue Aug 31, 2004 04:21 AM ET reuters.com
By Park Sung-woo and Muklis Ali
SEOUL/JAKARTA, Aug 31 (Reuters) - BP Plc. (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) sealed a second deal to supply Indonesian gas to South Korea, but analysts said the oil giant was still a long way from a final commitment to go ahead with the $3 billion Tangguh project.
In a signing ceremony in Jakarta, South Korean utility K-Power agreed to take 600,000 tonnes per year (tpy) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) starting in 2006 for 20 years. K-Power also has the option to buy an extra 200,000 tpy to 2010.
South Korean steelmaker POSCO Co. (005490.KS: Quote, Profile, Research) inked in July a $1.9 billion deal with the Tangguh LNG consortium to buy 550,000 tpy over 20 years starting in 2005.
The deals mean that Tangguh, BP's biggest investment in Indonesia, has concrete LNG sales commitments for 1.15 million tonnes annually, just 16 percent of the total planned capacity of about 7 million tpy.
"BP hasn't underpinned the project, the economics. There cannot be any final investment decision until BP has a firm commitment from buyers," said an industry source, who declined to be identified. "At the moment I'd give it a 60:40 chance of going ahead."
China's CNOOC Group and U.S. Sempra Energy (SRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) have signed preliminary agreements for 2.6 million tpy and 3.7 million tpy, respectively, but these are yet to be finalised.
BP, which vies with Royal Dutch Shell Group (RD.AS: Quote, Profile, Research) (SHEL.L: Quote, Profile, Research) for the world's No.2 ranking, said in May that a final investment decision for Tangguh, which lies in the restive province Papua, would be taken before the end of the year.
BP plans to buiLd two LNG production units, each of 3.5 million tpy capacity, to cool and compress gas fed from fields in Papua's Bintuni Bay, 3,000 km (1,880 miles) east of Jakarta. BP has said Tangguh holds 14.4 trillion cubic feet of proved and certified natural gas reserves.
Its partners in the project are CNOOC Ltd (0883.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) (CEO.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and LNG Japan, a joint venture between Sumitomo Corp (8053.T: Quote, Profile, Research) and Nissho Iwai-Nichimen Holdings Corp. (2768.T: Quote, Profile, Research) . HIGH RISK
Tangguh has its first sales commitment starting in 2005 but is behind schedule. Lukman Mahfoedz, senior vice president BP Indonesia Tangguh LNG, said on Tuesday that Tangguh would come on stream in mid-2008 and until then LNG would be sourced from other suppliers to meet commitments.
Jeff Brown, chief economist at Hawaii-based energy consultancy FACTS Inc., said the delay could prove expensive.
"The (spot) market is tight so it is a question of where they will get it from ... it will be interesting to see how much they have to pay and where they get the volumes from," said Brown.
Asia's LNG market has little by way of spot capacity and Jakarta said on Monday that it would need to buy 54 spot cargoes between 2005 and 2007 to meet sales obligations due to declining gas output and domstic demand.
Indonesia, which analysts say will have to buy upward of 30 cargoes to meet 2004 commitments, was the biggest supplier of LNG in 2003 into Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
Tangguh is vital for Indonesia's reputation as a top LNG supplier, which has been dented in recent years due to closures at it plant in Aceh province because of high security risks from separatist violence and a fire at a gas field.
Sources at oil companies active in Indonesia say hydrocarbon production has been declining with firms hesitant to invest due to bureaucratic delays and murky legal and regulatory frameworks.
"I don't think BP will walk away from Tangguh, but they underestimated the scale of the challenge to bring Indonesian LNG to the market.
"The political risk in Papua is massive, they've been beaten to the market by Malaysia and there's stiff competition from Qatar and Sakhalin," said a consultant, who declined to be named.
"Now that Exxon has lost the Cepu licence, BP must be wondering if it could find itself in the same position."
After three years of wrangling, state oil firm Pertamina said last week it would shut out the world's No. 1 oil firm, ExxonMobil (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , from the Cepu oilfield by not extending its contract to operate after it expires in 2010.
Cepu, on which ExxonMobil reckons it has already spent $450 million, is estimated to hold 250-500 million barrels of crude oil but has not yet been developed for commercial output.
(Additional reporting by Joanne Collins in Melbourne and Tanya Pang in Singapore)
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